In the current Donnybrook comments, I see that Barry said this:
The polls are rigged. They don’t remotely align with reality. They are rigged to create a cascade of Biden voters and to depress the Trump voters.
Elsewhere, I see that Ted Cruz said this:
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on Friday warned Republicans the party could face a “bloodbath” in November if voters aren’t feeling optimistic about the economy and the direction of the pandemic.
Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Cruz said the presidential election is extremely “volatile” and that President Trump could still get reelected by a “big margin” if voters feel like the U.S. is recovering from the pandemic-induced economic shutdown.
But he warned the party could also face landslide losses similar to what happened in the midterms following the Watergate scandal and Richard Nixon’s resignation.
“I am worried. It’s volatile, it’s highly volatile … if people are going back to work, if they’re optimistic, if they’re positive about the future, we could see a fantastic election — the president getting reelected with a big margin, Republicans winning both Houses of Congress and I think that’s a real possibility,” Cruz said.
“But I also think if on Election Day people are angry and they’ve given up hope and they’re depressed, which is what [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and [Senate Minority Leader Charles] Schumer want them to be, I think it could be a terrible election. I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress, that it could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions.”
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has opened up a 9.7-point lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, his largest lead in months.
So the question here is this: is Barry really channeling Ted Cruz somehow?
Joking around aside, they’re both right. It’s doubtless true that the polls are indeed rigged, and purposely so. The fact that almost every one of them oversamples Democrat-Socialists by truly ludicrous margins alone makes it perfectly clear that they aren’t honest efforts at gauging public opinion; they’re attempts to obscure the truth, instead of revealing or clarifying it. They’re transparent manipulations magicked up from whole cloth to provide comfort and reinforcement to the Left, and to demoralize and suppress Real American voters. In short, they’re no more honest, reliable, or trustworthy than the “debate” shitshows are—that any and everything else corrupted by “liberalism” ever is, actually. And oversampling is only one facet of the problem with polls.
The poll sample is important. Oversampling Democrats will skew the results in favor of the Democrat candidate. In this poll, 34 percent identified as Democrat while only 26 percent described themselves as Republican, an eight-point difference. Imagine the results if those percentages were flipped.
They also surveyed registered, not likely, voters. Given that only slightly more than half of eligible voters actually voted in the 2016 presidential election, this too is not a representative sample.
The CNN poll, with their Democrat oversampling, showed voters nationally backing Biden over Trump by 51 to 46 percent, a five-point difference, less than the eight-point difference in party affiliation.
A nationwide poll is irrelevant in a presidential election because of the Electoral College. Instead there are 50 state elections taking place, not a national popular vote, to the consternation of many on the political left.
A presidential election is decided by a handful of “battleground states” that tend to swing red or blue, depending on the election cycle. An opinion poll in New York or California is irrelevant as it’s a foregone conclusion that the Democrat will win. The margin doesn’t matter as the electoral votes will be the same.
In battleground states, Trump leads Biden by 52 to 45 percent, a seven-point margin. Add the eight-point difference in party affiliation of those polled, and Trump’s lead could potentially be 15 percent.
Some other interesting tidbits are hidden in this poll. The economy typically predicts the next president, as USA Today notes. The U.S. economy is in the toilet these days due to the Wuhan virus causing a national shutdown. But as The Washington Post begrudgingly admits, “Americans have an increasingly dismal view of the economy, but they don’t blame Trump.”
And even all that doesn’t address the use of carefully-crafted questions intended to “lead” respondents to the answers the propagandists find useful, among still other highly suspect stratagems.
All in all, it’s like I always say: polls are the bunk. There are certainly valid reasons not to be too complacent about the likelihood of a Trumpslide. Deceptive Enemedia polls ain’t one of ’em.