Believe it or Else

Remain calm, all is (not) well

Posted on March 30, 2020March 30, 2020 by Mike

Bearing in mind the uncertainty factor—that we don’t really even know what we don’t know as of yet—stepping back for a dose of level-headed perspective seems like it might come in useful.

I’m a recently-retired Professor of Pathology and National Health Service consultant pathologist, and have spent most of my adult life in healthcare and science — fields which, all too often, are characterized by doubt rather than certainty. There is room for different interpretations of the current data. If some of these other interpretations are correct, or at least nearer to the truth, then conclusions about the actions required will change correspondingly.

The simplest way to judge whether we have an exceptionally lethal disease is to look at the death rates. Are more people dying than we would expect to die anyway in a given week or month? Statistically, we would expect about 51,000 to die in Britain this month. At the time of writing, 422 deaths are linked to COVID-19 — so 0.8 percent of that expected total. On a global basis, we’d expect 14 million to die over the first three months of the year. The world’s 18,944 coronavirus deaths represent 0.14 percent of that total. These figures might shoot up but they are, right now, lower than other infectious diseases that we live with (such as flu). Not figures that would, in and of themselves, cause drastic global reactions.

Initial reported figures from China and Italy suggested a death rate of 5 percent to 15 percent, similar to Spanish flu. Given that cases were increasing exponentially, this raised the prospect of death rates that no healthcare system in the world would be able to cope with. The need to avoid this scenario is the justification for measures being implemented: the Spanish flu is believed to have infected about one in four of the world’s population between 1918 and 1920, or roughly 500 million people with 50 million deaths. We developed pandemic emergency plans, ready to snap into action in case this happened again.

At the time of writing, the UK’s 422 deaths and 8,077 known cases give an apparent death rate of 5 percent. This is often cited as a cause for concern, contrasted with the mortality rate of seasonal flu, which is estimated at about 0.1 percent. But we ought to look very carefully at the data. Are these figures really comparable?

Cause for concern? Sure. Taking reasonable, appropriate precautionary measures? Of course. The kind of irrational panic response we’ve seen of late—upending society wholesale, wrecking the economy, throwing millions out of work, passively forsaking rights and liberties that can never be regained without bloodshed? Sorry, I just can’t see it. The good doctor makes a lot of sense to me here. But YMMV.

(Via Larwyn)

Religion versus pseudo-science?

Posted on March 30, 2020March 30, 2020 by Mike

The pseudo-science-pimping Left isn’t as anti- or a-religious as they like to think.

All pseudo-science models have one thing in common: They are essentially deeply religious, accompanied as they are by apocalyptic end times scenarios that goad the public into actions fomented by panic and despair. The use of mathematics and charts adds an air of legitimacy to apocalyptic predictions that are almost the exact duplicate of end time scenarios prophesied by cult leaders. Such prophets have used biblical verses, gnostic numerology, guilt and fear to panic their followers into selling all their possessions, buying white robes and heading to the mountains or digging shelters underground in hopes of surviving as the chosen remnant.

In a similar panicked manner, there are those whose disruptive plans are now being put into play while they appeal to “science” and to their higher moral discernment; wisdom that is hidden from the rest of us mortals.

Nothing is more tempting to potential tyrants than utilization of a panic stoked to white heat in order to reinforce and extend state control. The use of partial truth — yes, the virus is real — can be inflated and massaged in order to achieve nefarious ends. Alas, the fact is that the final writhing of a diseased system built on lies can still create havoc. Some ideologues just like to see things burn. Some see ways to profit from societal collapse. Some see the possibility that society can be fundamentally transformed.

We need to consider what will happen if our entire nation is shut down. We need to consider that what is happening in our own country goes far beyond an attempt to take down Donald Trump and is rapidly morphing into hysteria that if unchecked, could change our entire nation beyond recognition.

Don’t look now, bub, but I think maybe it just did.

The coronavirus madness puts before Americans a choice: Revive the progressive/leftist Frankenstein monster or immolate it at last.

Let’s hope America chooses the latter and doesn’t accede to embracing an ideological vision that has long relied on deathly visions of apocalypse now, visions bound to destroy the flawed but redeemable peoples and institutions of the West.

All the while, hope and pray that the panic engendered by an ideological paradigm bolstered by pseudo-science and errant philosophical underpinnings at last collapses; and that true reform and restoration can begin.

And now for something completely different: a look at the brighter side.

Thankfully as a nation this crisis is causing us to reevaluate our priorities: faith, family, community and freedom; and seeing the easy dispatch of liberty also reignites that oft forgotten flickering flame…

Journalists are less important than janitors. Our nations best athletes are healthcare workers rushing to assist those in need. The true heroes are not celebrities, but rather farmers, truck drivers, stock clerks, and supermarket cashiers.

The most valuable businesses do not glitter or present themselves with self-congratulatory award shows; they do today what they have always done to keep our food supply flowing. Perhaps now, at least for a few short weeks, we stop taking them for granted.

Effective right now comfortably invisible workers are recognized as critical priorities; or as the government has official designated them “essential services.” These folks form the network of our lives; they always have, but we didn’t notice. Everything else is less than.

No-one is saying this doesn’t suck; but some people know that standing around bitching about the comparative values of current life in suckdom doesn’t actually accomplish anything.

President Trump is doing what needs to be done; with far more information than me; and in the best manner he can assemble to keep America great. He does this while simultaneously swatting away thousands of piranhas biting at him on an hourly basis.

So again, ask yourself a question: what part are you to play?

Live your best life.

You only have this moment once.

That unlooked-for burst of sunny positivity comes to us courtesy of Sundance, who also steers us to this one:

Truckers are saying “fuck the log rules, I’m hauling” and they’re getting supplies to the stores. People are stocking the shelves all night and letting old people shop first. Folks are buying meals for truckers, who (obviously) can’t go through the drive-ups. Asking ’em what they want, then buying it for them.

Carnival Cruise Line has told Trump “We can match those big Navy Hospital ships with some fully staffed cruise ships”.

GM and Ford have said “hold our cars and watch this — we can make ventilators where we were just making car parts, starting next week” — by re-engineering seat ventilators which their engineers hacked together for a new purpose. In under a week.

In a project with which I’m loosely associated, a very-effective agricultural disease-control agent was re-purposed and re-labeled specifically for Corona-virus control by the FDA and EPA in under ten days, from initial request to distribution.

Restaurants and schools have said, “we’ve got kitchens and staff; we can feed the poor kids who used have school lunch.”

NBA basketball players have said, “Hold our basketballs while we write checks to pay the arena staff.”

Construction companies are saying, “Here are some high-end masks for medical staff and doctors”.

Distilleries are making sanitizer out of distilling “heads and tails” which are normally discarded. Nasty shit to drink, but effective sanitizer.

People are tipping grocery check-out clerks and thanking them for taking the risk.

Local, state, and county governments are taking control of everything the feds cannot do. Some are doing it wrong, but for the first time in decades … they’re doing it. Federalism is re-emerging, and the smallest unit of government is the individual and the family. This, too, is re-emerging after decades of dormancy.

As Japanese Admiral Isokuru Yamamoto said, after Pearl Harbor … “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

I sense this has just happened. We have a wonderful country, the greatest single force for good in all human history. We have closed our borders, with good reason, yet we have top medical people now assisting North Korea in their response to the virus.

Many things have been re-set, and will never be the same.

By microbiological accident, we are living in profoundly transformative historical times.

No denying that. It remains to be seen how that profound transformation shakes out in the end, but we must remain hopeful to whatever extent we possibly can. Horrid as it is, if the current upheaval is what it takes to achieve the aforementioned immolation of the Left at long last, it will have been well worth the cost.

AWWWW update! What the heck, two more feel-good stories—from New Jersey, of all places—below the fold.
Continue reading “Religion versus pseudo-science?” →

Chinese Yellow Peril Fu Manchu Wuhan Sino-Flu claims another victim

Posted on March 29, 2020March 29, 2020 by Mike

Peter Hitchens’ equanimity.

As I watched the Prime Minister order mass house arrest on Monday night, I felt revulsion, anger and grief – as anyone brought up when this was a free and well-governed country would. I also felt terribly alone.

You could not have known, from anything broadcast that night or printed the following day, that anyone was unhappy with these events. But they were.

So, above all things this week, I would like to thank all the kind, perplexed people who have got in touch with me by so many means, to say they share my doubts about the Government’s handling of Covid-19.

After last week, can we rule anything out? This new Stasi society has a horrifying level of support. Humberside police are already advertising a ‘portal’ for citizens to inform on their neighbours for breaking the ‘social distancing’ rules.

If you think they won’t get any takers, think again. Northamptonshire police have revealed that their control room has had ‘dozens and dozens’ of calls about people ignoring the order.

I must refer you folks once more to a great quote I read someplace in the aftermath of the 9/11 “Somebody Did Something” man-caused-disaster event. A Brit pundit was asked whether he thought Great Britain could hope to successfully stand against Moslem terrorism. The pundit briskly responded, “That isn’t the question. The question is whether the English people remain English.” Alas, that question was answered long ago, it seems.

Most people will, by now, have viewed the online film of Metropolitan police officers bellowing officiously at sunbathers on Shepherd’s Bush Green in London, energetically stamping out the foul crime of lying on the grass (would they have paid so much attention, two weeks ago, to a gaggle of louts making an unpleasant noise, or to marijuana smokers?).

Others will have seen the films, taken by Derbyshire police drones, of lonely walkers on the remote, empty hills, publicly pillorying them for not obeying the regulations. It is genuinely hard to see what damage these walkers have done.

But as a former resident of the USSR, I can tell you that this sort of endless meddling by petty authority in the details of life, reinforced by narks, is normal in unfree societies – such as we have now become for an indefinite period. It is, by the way, also a seedbed for corruption.

Meanwhile, our economy is still crippled, and the overpraised Chancellor Rishi Sunak, like some beaming Dr Feelgood with a case full of dodgy stimulants, seeks to soothe the pain by huge injections of funny money.

He will get this back from us as soon as we are allowed out again. Just you wait till you get the bill, in increased taxes, inflation and devastated savings.

Gee, thank goodness such things could never happen here, right?

It ought not to be so. In fact, several powerful pieces of evidence have come to light, suggesting that the Great Panic is foolish and wrong.

I shall come to these, to underline the fact that it is not I, alone, who have these doubts. I do not claim to be an expert. But I refer to those who definitely are experts, who doubt the wisdom of what we are doing.

He goes on to cite that evidence chapter and verse. Over there or over here, it’s as I’ve been saying: whatever this whole contretemps was orginally all about, it ain’t about that now. Our would-be masters saw their chance, and they jumped on it with both feet. Long, long after the Chinese Fug itself has faded into dim and distant memory, we’ll be dealing with the disastrous consequences of the panicked overreaction to it.

By their fruits shall ye know them

Posted on March 29, 2020March 30, 2020 by Mike

The mailed fist is beginning to show through the velvet glove of “an abundance of caution” and “concern.”

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s power trip has reached new heights.

On Friday, de Blasio warned religious leaders during his press briefing that if places of worship do not comply with the city’s shutdown order — he might close them down permanently.

“A small number of religious communities, specific churches and specific synagogues, are unfortunately not paying attention to this guidance even though it’s so widespread,” de Blasio said during the briefing.

While he specifically mentioned synagogues and churches, he did not mention mosques at all.

Anybody surprised by that curious little omission? At all?

“I want to say to all those who are preparing for the potential of religious services this weekend: If you go to your synagogue, if you go to your church and attempt to hold services after having been told so often not to, our enforcement agents will have no choice but to shut down those services,” he added.

The out-of-control mayor continued on to say that if churches and synagogues resist authorities, they may be shut down forever.

Don’t think he wouldn’t, and with a big, happy smile on his face too. Fierce suppression of Christianity and Judaism has always been pretty much di rigeur for Commie tyrants everywhere, after all. Marxism can’t stand up to competition from other faiths.

Overstepping his bounds update! By what authority, Red Bill?

Let us be clear, the government can request, suggest and recommend that faith-based assemblies suspend their services; and in many cases those churches and religious groups may indeed choose to suspend their services. However, under no circumstance, including: war, famine or virus pandemics that could leave only a hand-full of people alive, can the government force the suspension; or punish those who refuse to comply.

Religious worship, including the assembly therein, is enshrined within the first amendment as it carries the first and ultimate essential service. There is absolutely no situation where that right can be removed.

Worse still is the use of the word “permanently” when de Blasio announces his unconstitutional suspension of rights. The mayor threatens to permanently close buildings? What kind of mindset would even fathom forcing the permanent closure of houses of worship because they defy unconstitutional dictates from the state?

This decree by the New York mayor should alarm everyone.

What TRULY ought to alarm everyone is that New Yorkers elected the loathsome Commie shitheel in the first damned place.

SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!!

Posted on March 29, 2020March 29, 2020 by Mike

What was I saying the other day about it being an ill wind indeed that blows no man any good?

Government Accidentally Shuts Itself Down With Ban On Non-Essential Businesses
WASHINGTON, D.C.—Congress has asked all non-essential businesses to limit their hours or close entirely for an undetermined amount of time.

But this shutdown mistakenly shut down the most non-essential entity of all: the government. For a brief period of time, all government in the United States was illegal, since it is completely non-essential to everything.

“Oops,” said Senator Mitch McConnell. “We meant non-essential private businesses. Of course, the government is always essential, even when it’s not doing anything or is making things worse.”

Senators, congresspeople, and bureaucrats frantically rewrote the ban to include only businesses that actually produced something and not government agencies that just watched other people make stuff. Though they had dragged their feet on passing bills related to relieving the financial distress of the shutdown, they passed this revision in record speed, almost as quickly as they vote for pay raises for themselves.

It’s the Bee, of course, but would that it were true. I do have a quibble to make with that “watching other people make stuff” business too. Actually, if they limited their activities to merely spectating, we’d all be a lot better off. Unfortunately, their primary function is to actively hinder the people who are trying to make stuff, then turn around and tax, regulate, inspect, harrass, and fee them right into oblivion.

“The future is not written”

Posted on March 28, 2020March 28, 2020 by Mike

Well, this is kinda cool.

‘He made it’: 101-year-old man who was born during Spanish flu pandemic survives coronavirus infection
A 101-year-old man reportedly survived a fight with the coronavirus as the pandemic continues to overwhelm Italy.

Gloria Lisi, vice mayor of Rimini, announced the news. She said the man, identified only as Mr. P., was admitted to a hospital last week after he tested positive for the flu-like illness. Mr. P. was born in 1919 while the world was grappling with the Spanish flu, a disease that killed millions.

“He made it. Mr. P. made it,” Lisi said. “Even at 101 years, the future is not written.”

She pointed out that, since being born during the Spanish flu, Mr. P. has seen the world change dramatically.

“He saw everything, Mr. P. War, hunger, pain, progress, crisis, and resurrections,” Lisi said.

So, a survivor of Spanish Flu and Chinese Yellow Peril Fu Manchu Wuhan Sino-Flu both, then. He’s a tough old bird for sure, and good on him for it.

A new contender emerges!

Posted on March 28, 2020March 28, 2020 by Mike

A faltering, befuddled Biden makes the only sensible move left to him.

Congrats to Bat Boy on this welcome news, of course. But there’s more.

BAT BOY TESTS NEGATIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS!
RESUMES 2020 ELECTION CAMPAIGN!

WASHINGTON DC – After a tense few days, the test results have finally come in. Bat Boy does NOT have coronavirus!

Last week, Bat Boy was on Capitol Hill meeting with a number of Senators and members of Congress to discuss his plans to unify the country. Unfortunately, Bat Boy spent some time in a heated discussion with Senators Rand Paul and Senator Joe Manchin. When news broke that Rand Paul had to be tested for coronavirus, the CDC contacted Bat Boy. Out of an abundance of cautious, Bat Boy was also tested.

Bat Boy spent the week in his cave in West Virginia. He did not let any of his staff or friends near him. Bigfoot tried to visit him, but he was too big to fit into the hole leading to Bat Boy’s hideaway. The two mutants did speak to each other through a crack in the cave wall.

Vice President Pence invited Bat Boy to the podium in The White House Press Room to announce his negative test results. Bigfoot, his Vice Presidential running mate and Ph.D., Ape, his campaign advisor joined Bat Boy for his announcement.

Heartening developments all around, then. If a Bat Boy/Bigfoot administration can’t get this damned country straightened out, I’m not sure what can.

From America’s other paper of record: the Weekly World News, which rightly bills itself as “The World’s Only Reliable News.” For some reason or other I have till now neglected to put WWN into Ye Olde Blogrolle, which oversight has been corrected. Thanks to Brack for the steer on the coveted Biden endorsement.

Faltering, befuddled update! Gee, don’t go TOO far out on that limb there, fellas.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson said insiders in the Joe Biden presidential campaign believe he will not be mentally fit to be president come Election Day.

Wrong verb tense, Tucker. He isn’t mentally fit to be president NOW. Or much of anything else, for that matter.

While appearing on the Charlie LeDuff podcast, Carlson claimed that Biden insiders told him they don’t believe the former vice president has the mental fortitude to last until the 2020 election in November, speculating that the Democratic Party may revoke his potential nomination.

“I sincerely and totally believe that Joe Biden will not be the Democratic nominee on Election Day,” Carlson began.

“How does that math work?” another podcast host pressed. “It’s not about math. It’s about will,” Carlson said, saying the Democratic Party is “intent on taking power.”

“Two competing imperatives: We’ve got to win, but we’ve got a guy who can’t win. Therefore, they’re going to replace him,” Carlson continued. “He’s not going to make it, and the people around him know that. Trust me, I know them. And I know they know it, because they’ve said it to me.”

Looks like Senile Uncle Gropey ain’t the only sad, sloppy mess to be found in this election ordeal. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of assholes, if you ask me.

SAD update! Wow. I mean, just…WOW.

2020 Democrat front runner Joe Biden held a Coronavirus town hall with nurses, firefighters and emergency medical technicians.

Biden advertised his Coronavirus livestream to his 4.62 million Twitter followers.

But only 632 people tuned in to watch Sleepy Joe on YouTube.

Jeez-O-Pete. The Bat Boy/Bigfoot team has just gotta be looking better and better every day to the hapless Democrat-Socialists, don’tchathink? Salt in the wound:

The Fox News special with President Trump and members of his Coronavirus task force on Tuesday was the highest rated town hall in the history of cable news.

The virtual town hall had 4,409,000 viewers between 12:00 and 2:00 p.m. according to ratings from Nielsen. It also has over a million views on YouTube.

Oof. If Biden was at all capable of shame, he’d be burning up with it right about now. But as we already know, he isn’t.

When fear is fueled, principle is abandoned

Posted on March 27, 2020March 27, 2020 by Mike

And the Left is lovin’ it.

Consider, for a moment, what ideas Americans seem to have generally accepted in the last few weeks.

First, there seems to no longer be a question as to whether or not the government has a responsibility to ensure health care for American citizens. The prospect of some hospitals, in some specific locales, exceeding health care capacity has caused the bulk of the American economy, at the behest of government, to simply stop functioning in order to avoid it. In other words, the health of a comparative few is of far greater importance than the personal, financial, and social interests of the many. If we accept that as gospel and the creed of our governance, as it seems we have, then how is Medicare-for-All anything less than a moral imperative?

Secondly, there no longer seems to be any question as to whether our government needs to act swiftly and decisively to defend against an invisible threat which presents an unknown, and unknowable, future impact, even if that means destroying American free enterprise, and the lives and livelihoods of countless millions. Green New Deal, anyone?

Thirdly, this crisis appears to have nullified any devotion to the concept of individual liberty among Americans. A friend in Chicago tells me that he and his young daughters daren’t risk even walking to the park that his tax dollars built, as he risks a $500 fine for doing so. The stiffest resistance encountered by the government officials imposing these infringements upon law-abiding citizens is the quiet grumbling that exists beneath all these loud sermons about “social distancing” and “flattening the curve.”

And finally, as Americans are left unable to care for themselves because the government is prohibiting their free association in the economic marketplace, the government is now facilitating a massive transfer of wealth from taxpayers as cash payments to Americans below certain income thresholds.

It is not a coincidence that the greatest economic depression and the greatest expansion of the federal government’s power in American history occurred at precisely the same moment in time (see: New Deal Era). Once you understand that, why American progressives seem all-too-willing to sacrifice Americans’ economic prosperity while promising government-issued security blankets during the crisis shouldn’t be a mystery to anyone.

Americans are being asked to not only accept unnecessarily rigid social restrictions, but to also accept an indefinitely disabled economy for as long as the government sees fit, even though its continued disability has the potential to destroy our free enterprise system and fundamentally alter the American citizen’s relationship with the government.

To justify all of this, Americans are routinely presented the false metaphor that we are at war, and that this war requires sacrifices on our part. But millions of Americans aren’t enduring economic strife, social anxiety, and government-imposed quarantines because modern-day Nazis are looking to enslave humanity. No, we are enduring all of those things as a result of our blanket government policy responses to this pandemic, which apparently require bigger, broader, and more dangerous government policy responses to rectify.

You guys know what I always say: when the Left is winning, America is losing. In a time when government is using panic to expand its reach and power by orders of magnitude, conservative “principles” are old, stale news as the putative Right joins the general stampede to clamber aboard the Big Government bandwagon. All of which means the Left is winning.

Requiem for the Republic

Posted on March 27, 2020March 27, 2020 by Mike

She’s dead, Jim.

In order to maintain something of an economy with most of the nation locked away in their homes, there has been a 2 Trillion dollar payment to individuals, businesses and corporations to stabilize the economy and another 4 Trillion dollar loosening of the Federal Reserve to go along with it. What does that mean? It means that created out of air is twice the annual tax receipts for the United States. There is no way that is not a significant economic event. It is the invention of 1/3 of GDP. That it would not have a drastic and detrimental effect on the future of the nation is insanity only capable of being ignored by graduates of the public school system.

In one fell swoop of a minor pandemic the United States as a nation has abandoned both the republic and capitalism. Individual rights are destroyed, never again to be seen as rational arguments against the power of the state. Capitalism has lost out to the political and economic ideology of Soviet Russia allowing for such things as “travel permits” and sequestration of healthy individuals. It might be politically acceptable to brush all of this off for the time being as we sort out how big of a problem the pandemic is going to be, but it will never return to what it was and what few and precious rights once available to us will no longer be accessible through the courts.

It’s over. The elephant is dead. Capitalism is gone, the republic is gone. What we have now is an opportunity to feed off of the dead elephant, to stockpile as much as we can, to distance ourselves from each other and prepare for the ultimate battle for survival. The economic collapse is already in motion. It would have come along anyway, eventually, but this stimulus package stacked on top of the already soaring debt and unfunded liabilities will cripple the nation forever. It will implode. That is not to say that it will not chug along on four square wheels for some time, but the last support has been kicked out from under it, that of the belief in the rule of law and an understanding of global economics. Without those, nothing prevents the ceiling up from crashing down. It is what we recognize in Christianity as faith. Remove faith (as we have) and the only thing left are words, memes circulating the popular sites with no structural substance.

I note that hereabouts at least, the Christian churches are among the many things under lockdown, but golf courses…ain’t?!? Strangely, I’ve yet to see much specific mention of mosques, nor of how our newly-decreed statewide lockdown might affect Ramadan. But I do confess the idea of holding “digital Ramadan” observances just tickles me silly.

Oooops!

Posted on March 27, 2020March 27, 2020 by Mike

Never mind.

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Follows, some crunching of what admittedly meager numbers we actually have, an unknown portion of which are either incomplete or unreliable. Conclusion?

This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.

If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.

A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.

I feel confident in sticking with a tried and true central premise of mine: whatever the solution to any given problem might be, if any, it’s EXTREMELY unlikely that it will come from government. I have for years now distrusted both its intentions and its capabilities, and see no reason to abandon that position now just because everybody else has suddenly decided to embrace the old faith again out of nothing but sheer terror.

The excerpt above is from a WSJ article, paywalled of course, so the link I provided above is actually to an archive.is snapshot. It may or may not work for some of you guys, I dunno. But except for the statistical nitty-gritty, I already copped the good parts for ya anyhow.

(Via CBD)

Fact check update! More number-crunching, unveiling the truth behind all the Enemedia lies.

You have been conned

Posted on March 25, 2020March 25, 2020 by Mike

Robert Zimmerman lays out what it’s REALLY all about. Hint: same old thing it always is.

While common sense, caution, and the human ability to adapt to fluctuating circumstances requires our society to react to the COVID-19 epidemic spreading across the globe, our additional ability to think coolly and rationally requires us to not allow our emotions to run wildly and out-of-control, taking actions that might feel good for a moment but do no good and maybe more harm in the long run.

It also requires to look closely at the actions of our lawmakers, whose motives are now commonly not driven by an interest in the country but by their own interests and an insatiable desire for power. Two stories this past weekend were quite revealing in this context.

First we have the incredible request by the Justice Department for new special powers so that it can supposedly react to the epidemic properly.

The Justice Department has quietly asked Congress for the ability to ask chief judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during emergencies — part of a push for new powers that comes as the coronavirus spreads through the United States.

…There are more requests on the list, including the ability for the chief judge of any district court to “pause court proceedings” when the court is impacted by civil disobedience or other emergency situations. Such a “pause” could be put into effect for pre-arrest, post-arrest, pre-trial, trial, and post-trial procedures. In other words, this would effectively throw habeas corpus out the window for the duration of the pandemic. You could, in theory at least, be arrested and tossed in a cell and left there indefinitely without getting the chance to appear before a judge and ask to be released, have bail set or anything else.

Remember, this is essentially the same Justice Department that for the past three years has worked hard to misuse the FISA court in an effort to overthrow the legal election of a president they don’t like, even as they abused their power to put several people in prison and ruin the lives of others for relatively minor process crimes that would not have even existed without their fake investigation.

You think they won’t misuse these new powers, should Congress give such to them? And in what way do any of these totalitarian and unconstitutional powers contribute in any way to overcoming COVID-19?

They don’t. That’s the giveaway, see. Even for those blind or naive enough not to have seen what was coming early on, rely on loathsome Demo-dimwit James Clyburn to be stupid enough to give the game away.

House Democrats are indicating they want to go bigger and broader than the already massive economic stimulus package offered by Senate Republicans to blunt the coronavirus pandemic.

On a Thursday conference call featuring more than 200 members of the House Democratic caucus, lawmakers one by one laid out a sweeping wish list of provisions they want to see included in the nascent package, including a boost in infrastructure spending, an expansion of Social Security benefits and funding for states to set up an all-mail voting system in the event the pandemic extends into November’s elections.

“This is a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision,” Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told lawmakers, according to a source on the call.

It is at that, and they’re making the most of it. Hey, isn’t there an old saw, probably apocryphal, about the Chinese word for “crisis” having a dual meaning, also signifying “opportunity”? Back to Zimmerman for the closer:

Can you imagine removing these restrictions next year, when the flu returns (as it always does) and causes even half those deaths? And if the lockdowns have been removed this summer because the Wuhan virus has subsided, I will not be surprised if they are re-imposed next fall, due to the annual much more serious flu season. A precedent will have been set, a precedent that every single one of our power-hungry and very corrupt politicians will wish to use, as often as possible.

Fortunately, we do have an election coming in November. If these thugs in power continue their effort to make themselves our dictators, we will have a chance to tell them otherwise.

The big question however is: Will we? I wish I knew.

Which brings to mind another, darker old saw: If voting could change anything, it would be illegal.

Turd World problems

Posted on March 23, 2020March 23, 2020 by Mike

Well, I admit I didn’t see this coming. But maybe I should have.

Shredded T-Shirts Used as Toilet Paper Are Backing Up Sewer Systems
Thanks to all of you numbskulls who bought a million rolls of toilet paper in the last few weeks, some California towns are experiencing sewer problems because people are using disinfectant wipes, paper towels, and even shredded T-shirts and then flushing them.

Not that I’m a fan of the panic-buying Sheeple and their mad stampede off the c-virus cliff or anything, Rick, but I’d say it’s the people who were too stupid to go out and grab themselves a newspaper when they ran out of skid paper instead of trying to flush a friggin’ T shirt who are more at fault here. The original report:

The toilet paper shortage is leading some people to resort to other ways of wiping and it caused a problem for part of the Redding sewer system Wednesday night.

Someone apparently used shredded T-shirts when they didn’t have toilet tissue, wastewater management officials said Thursday.

As a result, one of the city’s sewer lines backed up at a lift station and workers had to take quick action to avert a dangerous spill.

“The pumps were clogged by what appeared to be shredded T-shirts that were used in place of toilet paper,” the city said.

If you don’t have toilet paper, city wastewater officials have this advice for other materials: “Bag it. Don’t flush it.”

Annnnd…then what? Bury it in the backyard? Leave it by the side of the road somewhere? Personally, I’d probably just set it afire and leave it on the porch of some neighbor I didn’t like, but I’m kind of a jerk like that sometimes. Back to Moran:

All we need is another public health crisis to deal with. Government agents will have to start going door to door and seize TP and distribute it to the truly needy.

Let’s not give ’em any more bright ideas, ‘kay?

The Romans used to scrape themselves clean and then enjoy a nice cleansing bath. No sewer problems there.

Well, they used to scrape themselves, maybe. Don’t know how “clean” that got ’em, although the “cleansing bath” part implies an unsatisfactory outcome. The Ayatollah Khomeini famously advised using a pebble for the purpose—among many, many other bizarre Allah-sanctioned shithouse do’s and don’ts—but I don’t care how many times anybody recommends it as a good example, I ain’t gonna follow.

Jersey dhimmis embrace Teh Suck

Posted on March 21, 2020March 22, 2020 by Mike

While your attention was diverted, a thing happened.

New Jersey City Approves Changes to Noise Ordinance to Allow Islamic Call to Prayer to Broadcast Five Times a Day – Beginning at 6 AM
After extensive debate, the City Council on Tuesday night voted 5-4 to approve changes in Paterson’s noise control ordinance that supporters say will allow mosques to broadcast the Islamic call to prayer five times a day.

The vote drew an impassioned standing room only crowd of more than 120 to City Hall, including some Christian pastors who opposed the measure, saying it would create a nuisance for people who live near mosques, as well as members of Paterson’s Muslim community, who praised the ordinance as a victory for religious inclusion.

Hey, long as those pesky Christian pastors don’t try something truly offensive and dangerously confrontational like, oh, reading from the Bible audibly in the vicinity of a mosque, say. Or, heaven forfend, handing out pamphlets advocating Christianity where a Mooselimb might see you.

Because that would be wrong.

But another resident, Steve Bauer, said mosques’ loudspeakers would be “blaring” in neighborhoods. During his comments, Bauer mentioned Islamic terrorists, including the man who was living in Paterson in October 2017 when he killed nine people at a Hudson River bike path in Manhattan.

Public nuisance isn’t the real issue; volume isn’t, and the time of day the devotional yodeling gets cranking damned sure isn’t. The issue is the establishment of a preferred state religion, most especially the official embrace of a hostile, alien pseudo-religion which is savagely antithetical to every last principle this pathetic joke of a nation used to proclaim.

City officials quickly interrupted Bauer to tell him he could only comment about the noise ordinance.

“With all due respect, this is a religious issue,” Bauer responded.

One would think so, perhaps. But ask the FBI anytime yet another known-wolf Muzzrat drives a truck onto the sidewalk to crush the infidel about his possible motive and you’ll quickly find out different.

The revised ordinance approved on Tuesday night listed 14 exemptions to the city’s noise regulations, including one that covered “bells, chimes or carillons…while being used in conjunction with religious services.” The revised ordinance also said that the call to prayer already was exempt from the noise control regulations under state law.

I’ll let Cristina say it for me:

The Islamic call to prayer should never be allowed in any city in the United States.

Amen.

It is a total nuisance and it is also a way for the Muslims in the community to show their dominance, forcing a city with Christians, Jews and perhaps agnostics to be subjected to Islam.

It is every bit of that, yep. Unfortunately, shamefully, this is just another in a lengthening list of wars we lost a long time ago. And in war there ain’t no do-overs.

In case you didn’t know, Paterson is but a short drive from a certain place in lower Manhattan some of us used to refer to as Ground Zero. A thing happened there also way, way back in antiquity—a seemingly major event at the time which has now been totally forgotten. In the fall of 2001, that was; you could look it up if you’re interested, I suppose. But hardly anybody is anymore, so why bother?

*spit*

The Teflon Don

Posted on March 21, 2020March 21, 2020 by Mike

Even in the current mess, the treacherous swine aren’t having things ALL their way.

A newly released ABC News/Ipsos poll finds that the attempts by the media and the Democratic Party to bash Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic have failed to sway voters. In fact, since the last time they polled the question, approval of Trump’s response to the pandemic has swung hugely in his favor.

According to the poll, which was conducted March 18-19th, 55 percent of voters approve of the way Trump “is handling the response to the coronavirus.” The poll shows a dramatic shift in opinion from a week earlier, when only 43 percent approved of Trump’s response to the virus.

This was not the only poll to show the public rally behind Trump during the pandemic. An Axios/Harris poll found virtually identical numbers in a survey conducted March 17-18, with 56 percent of Americans approving of Trump’s response to the pandemic, up from 51 percent in their previous poll.

In fact, the Harris poll shows Trump’s numbers have improved across the board. His overall approval went from 49 percent to 53 percent.

I saw a cheering sight earlier today, for whatever it might be worth. In the far corner of a local Wal-Mart parking lot, an enterprising middle-aged couple had set up a display table and awning to hawk miscellaneous Trump merchandise. They had “Trump 2020” banners flying over their little stand, with T-shirts, MAGA hats, and such-like paraphernalia on offer.

Now that was all fine and well, but better still was the gaggle of about fifteen or twenty customers queued up for their turn to plop down some hard-earned and grab themselves a souvenir. The crowd was chatting gaily among themselves, smiling and laughing, just generally enjoying a warm, pleasant Friday afternoon. Naturally, I honked and waved as I passed by.

Maybe I’m making a lot out of a little here, but I haven’t seen any impromptu Biden merch-purveyors around anywhere, and don’t expect to either. If I do, I don’t anticipate such a thing being any better-attended than Senile Grampy Joe’s campaign rallies have been.

Given the overwhelmingly negative coverage by the fake news media, complete with blatantly false stories, the fact that Trump’s approval in handling the pandemic is in positive territory is remarkable.

Au contraire, mon frere. At this point, all that “overwhelmingly negative coverage” is one of the things that’s driving those spiking numbers up. The peurile propaganda purveyors of Enemedia Inc, thanks to their own core dishonesty and doot-brained stupidity, have now created the situation they would very much like to have forestalled: the more they slam Trump, the harder his backers dig in their heels in support of him.

The horrid, hapless dolts have officially made Trump’s tongue-in-cheek campaign boast that he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters” into something very close to literal fact. Personally, I wouldn’t be much fussed about it if he took a Sunday afternoon stroll down Fifth Ave with guns ablaze myself, so long as it was Enemedia “journalists” he was blasting at. In fact, I’d guess more than just a few of us would be happy to chip in on ammo if that were the case, so as to avoid any risk of his running dry while doing the Lord’s work.

That’s how awful, how utterly despicable these alleged “people” are. Their own burning hatred and contempt, for Trump and for every Real American alike, has flashed back to sear them so badly that real Americans are now perfectly willing to overlook a broadening spectrum of transgressions solely for the purpose of pointing and laughing when the smug, whiny pinheads get their panties all in a wad over it. Trump is Our Guy, period, and to hell with what the enemy might think or say. The more the libtards screech the better we like it, and the more we hope to see of it from our esteemed Preznit.

Ask yourselves why we hate you, pissants.

It’s like the moronic mandarins of the mainstream media – luminaries like Honest Dan Rather, Brian “Badass Like Buttigieg” Williams, and Zombie Cronkite – got together to create a plan to make people hate the media even more than they already did. It was a daunting challenge, since people view the mainstream media as something akin to syphilis without the upside. But it’s as if they finally succeeded, accomplishing, against all odds, something besides failure, leveraging this pandemic to destroy the media forever. The Chinese Coronavirus Bat Soup Syndrome has taken what’s left of the media’s reputation, poured gasoline on it, then lit it on fire before flattening it with a bulldozer and finally having a Scat Francisco hobo download last night’s free bologna sandwich on the remains.

This was the media’s time to shine, a moment when we needed clear, objective information delivered by intelligent people who asked the important questions people care about so Americans could protect themselves and their families. It was a critical juncture when the media could step up and show us all that yes, the media is still important. It still matters. It still deserves our respect.

Instead we got, “Mr. President, isn’t accurately pointing out that the coronavirus originated in China racist?”

Really.

That was a thing.

Pointing out that the Wuhan flu came from Wuhan is racist.

Yep. If there’s any silver lining to be found shining forth from the grim Chinese Flu dustup, Leftymedia’s most spectacular self-beclownment to date—along with the collateral damage they incur from it—would have to be it.

Curioser and curioser

Posted on March 18, 2020March 18, 2020 by Mike

Willis Eschenbach examines what he calls the “Diamond Princess Mysteries.”

OK, here are my questions. We had a perfect petri-dish coronavirus disease (COVID-19) experiment with the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. That’s the cruise ship that ended up in quarantine for a number of weeks after a number of people tested positive for the coronavirus. I got to wondering what the outcome of the experiment was.

So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.

As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.

And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all…why?

Next, slightly less than half the passengers (48.6% ± 2.0%) who got the disease showed NO symptoms. If this disease is so dangerous, how come half the people who got it showed no symptoms at all?

For me, this is all good news. 83% of the people on the ship didn’t get it, despite perfect conditions for transmission. If you get it, you have about a 50/50 chance of showing no symptoms at all. And the fatality rate is lower than the earlier estimates of 2% or above.

At this point at least, it doesn’t appear that we are following the Italian trajectory. However…it’s still early days.

Finally, a plea for proportion. US coronavirus deaths are currently at 67, we’ll likely see ten times that number, 670 or so, might be a thousand or three…meanwhile, 3,100 people die in US traffic accidents…and that’s not 3,100 once in a decade, or 3,100 per year.

That’s 3,100 dead from auto accidents EACH AND EVERY MONTH…

It’s a mystery, right enough. There would seem to be angles aplenty to the whole Chinese Yellow Peril Fu Manchu Wuhan Sino-Flu story, but one of them worthy of at least a bare modicum of serious consideration is the possibility that we’re being played.

Update! With that abundance of odd angles I mentioned, it was a statistical near-certainty that at least one of them would turn out to be unintentionally hilarious.

Baltimore Mayor Begs Residents To Stop Shooting Each Other So Hospital Beds Can Be Used For Coronavirus Patients

BALTIMORE (WJZ) — Baltimore Mayor Jack Young urged residents to put down their guns and heed orders to stay home after multiple people were shot Tuesday night amidst the coronavirus pandemic.

Young said hospital beds are needed to treat positive COVID-19 patients and not for senseless violence. Seven people were shot Tuesday night in the Madison Park neighborhood, as Baltimore reported its fifth positive coronavirus case Wednesday.

“I want to reiterate how completely unacceptable the level of violence is that we have seen recently,” Young said. “We will not stand for mass shootings and an increase in crime.”

“For those of you who want to continue to shoot and kill people of this city, we’re not going to tolerate it,” Young implored. “We’re going to come after you and we’re going to get you.”

Be a nice change of pace from standard practice there, I suppose. Shiny new gun-grabber proposal to be announced in 5…4…3…2…

Things that make you go “hmmm” update! My days of taking the coronavirus scare seriously are definitely coming to a middle.

Dark Money Progressive Groups Spending Millions to Politicize Coronavirus, Spread Fear

If Proggies fear it, I’m for it, no matter what it might be.

Oh please update! Anyone beginning to feel a tetch cynical about the coronavirus stampede just got handed another very good reason.

Wednesday on CNN, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said the coronavirus pandemic was worse than both 9/11 and the 2008 stock market crash.

Schumer said, “I have lived through 9/11. I lost three friends that I knew in the towers. I was there through the crash of 2008, but this is the worst of all for a variety of reasons. First, we’re uncertain as to what is going to happen. There was some uncertainty after 9/11, in the days after we were worried we might be attacked again, but it’s not the same as this.”

It sure ain’t at that. For openers, there was no uncertainty whatsoever regarding who was responsible for 9/11 (Moslems), nor from whence the perps’ motive might have come (Islamic scripture). In fact, the only “uncertainty” I can think of is how the eventual Democrat-Socialist response—to import teeming, unvetted throngs of them here, get them signed up for welfare bennies in perpetuity, and then turn them loose to wage jihad here instead of there—ever came to be thought of, by anybody, as somehow a sensible thing to do.

Now THERE’S a mystery for ya. One for the ages.

Mo’ bettah update! Further and more erudite discussion at Silicon Greybeard, of which you should read the all, emphatically including the comments. Via Fran Porretto, who makes what remains, for me, the essential point.

Time was, no one would even entertain the possibility that an American political party would put power above the well-being of Americans generally. That time is long past.

The possibility that this is an engineered panic – a panic with the full weight of the Left and the media behind it – has been on many minds. As a weapon with which to hobble the American economy, few measures short of a nuclear bombing would have been more effective. But beyond that, a fearful people is a people easily subjugated. The effect is especially powerful when the thing feared is something against which individuals and communities cannot defend themselves.

You cannot see a virus.
You cannot shoot a virus, either.
Virus-caused diseases cannot be cured.
A virus of unknown potentialities is the perfect fear weapon.

But are the potentialities of the Wuhan virus really unknown? Silicon Graybeard’s article suggests otherwise, as do the dramatic differences among infection and fatality rates among the nations afflicted, according to their relative prosperity and whether their governments have socialized medical care. The United States, the most prosperous nation in history, with its free-market medical-care system, is overwhelmingly likely to come out of this “pandemic” almost unaffected, at least in comparison to other widespread diseases such as the common flu. Unaffected, that is, unless we surrender what remains of our freedom in response to political fear-mongering.

We could be doing ourselves immense, long-lasting harm for no good reason – and with Democrat mayors and governors leaping to act on Rahm Emanuel’s “wisdom,” the probability appears greater with every passing day and news cycle.

Whatever its origins, whatever its real effects, the coronavirus is now here. It will be with us always. No one can change that unwelcome reality. From this day forward, the principal thing we have a say over is what, and how much, we are willing to allow those with malign intent to take from us under false pretenses.

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