When the Bear slaps, it hurts

Ignore strategic analysis from sources whose visceral loathing for all things military is so deeply ingrained in their psyches that it simply overwhelms any possibility of rational, objective commentary.

The Russian military operation in Ukraine began with a rather small force of some 150.000+ men against a much larger (including reservist and territorial forces) Ukrainian force of some 400.000. The Russian force used maneuver warfare to fix the larger Ukrainian forces into place. It attacked on a large front and threatened major population concentrations, i.e. cities.

The Russian operations started with the destruction of the Ukrainian command and control network. Over the last four weeks the Ukrainian navy, its airforce, its radars and air defenses and a huge number of its armored vehicles were destroyed. Throughout the last week fuel depots all over the Ukraine were attacked and destroyed over night. Ukraine’s large ammunition depots are gone. Military production and repair facilities have likewise been destroyed. The Ukraine is no longer able to move large numbers of troops between the various fronts. Its army has lost its mobility.

While this was ongoing threats to Kiev, Odessa and other large Ukrainian cities have held significant numbers of Ukrainian troops in place and prevented reinforcements to move to the east. There units from the Donetsk and Luhansk republics attacked the 60,000 strong main force of the Ukrainian army to keep it in place.

This allowed Russian forces from Crimea and from the Russian border in the north to move into positions that will now enable them to envelope the east.

The Russian forces will probably take another four weeks to destroy the Ukrainian units at the Donetsk front. The Russian command will then have to decide which parts of the Ukraine it will want to keep under control. Next to Donetsk and Luhansk the region north of Crimea is a likely candidate. Odessa and Dnipro may also be still on the menu. The regions can be kept as statelets under local control or form a confederation that may well institutionalize a new country.

Anything beyond that depends on the willingness of the U.S. proxy government in Kiev to submit to Russia’s demands. Russia can leave it at that or it can continue to mow the grass until none is left.

Bill is eagerly anticipating the moment when “all the propaganda blows up in the usual faces,” but it won’t add up to anything. Based on observation of their past behavior, there will be neither acknowledgement of error nor any expression of contrition or apology for their self-serving blunder. They’ll just keep right on truckin’ as before, quickly moving on to the next campaign of manipulation and deceit.

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Barry

Nigel Farage had it nailed in 2014. He was on Tucker Carlson (I think), who played the clip from 2014.

kennycan

Yeah, it made sense. Encircle the Azov in the East, encircle Kiev, attack the eastern two provinces and the southern coastal areas.

That is the strategic importance to Russia. Prevent the Azov and Kiev forces from relieving the coastal sieges. Wait them out. Keep pushing for Peace once the objectives have been taken.

They’re there.

Apparently. I still wonder who is pulling our legs, but I keep asking people when to expect Ukrainian tanks in Moscow, given how 1/3 of the Russian forces have been killed or captured thus far, by “reports”, in one moth. A month or two later there will be no one to defend Moscow. Itls Blitzgrieg 1939 all over again.

Or not.

Barry

Hard to know what the truth is. My personal opinion, based on some historical knowledge of Russian military tactics, is that the Russians have not had as easy a time as they expected. Clearly they can eventually overcome the Ukraine, but to what end? And there is a problem, that leaves them vulnerable to any conventional attack as their military hardware reserves are not great. But I think they know nothing is coming, the deal was made early, the left loves those commies.

I do love those comparisons to the Gulf war (either one). The russians just have to drive their tanks, move their men, resupply munitions and food across their own border. We had to do all of that on the other side of the planet, big difference. The russians simply couldn’t do it. Nor can the chinese.

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