Great minds

In the current Donnybrook comments, I see that Barry said this:

The polls are rigged. They don’t remotely align with reality. They are rigged to create a cascade of Biden voters and to depress the Trump voters.

Elsewhere, I see that Ted Cruz said this:

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on Friday warned Republicans the party could face a “bloodbath” in November if voters aren’t feeling optimistic about the economy and the direction of the pandemic.

Speaking on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Cruz said the presidential election is extremely “volatile” and that President Trump could still get reelected by a “big margin” if voters feel like the U.S. is recovering from the pandemic-induced economic shutdown.

But he warned the party could also face landslide losses similar to what happened in the midterms following the Watergate scandal and Richard Nixon’s resignation.

“I am worried. It’s volatile, it’s highly volatile … if people are going back to work, if they’re optimistic, if they’re positive about the future, we could see a fantastic election — the president getting reelected with a big margin, Republicans winning both Houses of Congress and I think that’s a real possibility,” Cruz said.

“But I also think if on Election Day people are angry and they’ve given up hope and they’re depressed, which is what [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and [Senate Minority Leader Charles] Schumer want them to be, I think it could be a terrible election. I think we could lose the White House and both houses of Congress, that it could be a bloodbath of Watergate proportions.”

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has opened up a 9.7-point lead over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of polls, his largest lead in months.

So the question here is this: is Barry really channeling Ted Cruz somehow?

Joking around aside, they’re both right. It’s doubtless true that the polls are indeed rigged, and purposely so. The fact that almost every one of them oversamples Democrat-Socialists by truly ludicrous margins alone makes it perfectly clear that they aren’t honest efforts at gauging public opinion; they’re attempts to obscure the truth, instead of revealing or clarifying it. They’re transparent manipulations magicked up from whole cloth to provide comfort and reinforcement to the Left, and to demoralize and suppress Real American voters. In short, they’re no more honest, reliable, or trustworthy than the “debate” shitshows are—that any and everything else corrupted by “liberalism” ever is, actually. And oversampling is only one facet of the problem with polls.

The poll sample is important. Oversampling Democrats will skew the results in favor of the Democrat candidate. In this poll, 34 percent identified as Democrat while only 26 percent described themselves as Republican, an eight-point difference. Imagine the results if those percentages were flipped.

They also surveyed registered, not likely, voters. Given that only slightly more than half of eligible voters actually voted in the 2016 presidential election, this too is not a representative sample.

The CNN poll, with their Democrat oversampling, showed voters nationally backing Biden over Trump by 51 to 46 percent, a five-point difference, less than the eight-point difference in party affiliation.

A nationwide poll is irrelevant in a presidential election because of the Electoral College. Instead there are 50 state elections taking place, not a national popular vote, to the consternation of many on the political left.

A presidential election is decided by a handful of “battleground states” that tend to swing red or blue, depending on the election cycle. An opinion poll in New York or California is irrelevant as it’s a foregone conclusion that the Democrat will win. The margin doesn’t matter as the electoral votes will be the same.

In battleground states, Trump leads Biden by 52 to 45 percent, a seven-point margin. Add the eight-point difference in party affiliation of those polled, and Trump’s lead could potentially be 15 percent.

Some other interesting tidbits are hidden in this poll. The economy typically predicts the next president, as USA Today notes. The U.S. economy is in the toilet these days due to the Wuhan virus causing a national shutdown. But as The Washington Post begrudgingly admits, “Americans have an increasingly dismal view of the economy, but they don’t blame Trump.”

And even all that doesn’t address the use of carefully-crafted questions intended to “lead” respondents to the answers the propagandists find useful, among still other highly suspect stratagems.

All in all, it’s like I always say: polls are the bunk. There are certainly valid reasons not to be too complacent about the likelihood of a Trumpslide. Deceptive Enemedia polls ain’t one of ’em.

6 thoughts on “Great minds

  1. “So the question here is this: is Barry really channeling Ted Cruz somehow?”
    🙂
    No. I don’t even like the SOB. Although, he is our SOB, so beto can go F himself.

    1. Actually, although I lost a lot of respect for him, considering his behavior to be disgustingly oleaginous during the primaries, Cruz has conducted himself as a man of integrity after reconciling with Trump following the election. He’s made himself useful repeatedly since then, I gotta admit, so I have no problem with him.

      1. I agree he has been stellar since the kiss and make up occurred, which is why I consider him to be one of ours. I don’t trust him though. Anyone that would trash the party nominee out of spite at the convention…was trying to help elect a clinton.

  2. As for the polling, I think it was Kenny that theorized it may be to give the illusion of a lead that doesn’t exist in order prove the cheating is not really. That’s plausible. But I think it more likely that the pollsters, paid to deliver a result, are being paid to create hype for the Harris/Biden ticket. And I think it will fail for whatever that is worth.

    No one, not even the proggiest of the progs is going to get excited about president heels up Harris.

    And Trump supporters will not be swayed as is apparent every day.

    1. The media gaslighting has been so blatant, on so many issues, for so long, that increasing numbers of people see through it and just ignore the media entirely. The media spins just as hard as they can, but to less and less effect.

      This type of tactic is most effective if used very rarely, and by institutions that are trusted. But the media today are not trusted and they use the same tactics every single election, to the point where people are predicting when they will shift their numbers to get closer to reality to “preserve their credibility” (which does not exist any more). Going to the same well too often has greatly diminishing returns.

Comments are closed.

Comments policy

Comments appear entirely at the whim of the guy who pays the bills for this site and may be deleted, ridiculed, maliciously edited for purposes of mockery, or otherwise pissed over as he in his capricious fancy sees fit. The CF comments section is pretty free-form and rough and tumble; tolerance level for rowdiness and misbehavior is fairly high here, but is NOT without limit. Management is under no obligation whatever to allow the comments section to be taken over and ruined by trolls, Leftists, and/or other oxygen thieves, and will take any measures deemed necessary to prevent such. Conduct yourself with the merest modicum of decorum, courtesy, and respect and you'll be fine. Pick pointless squabbles with other commenters, fling provocative personal insults, issue threats, or annoy the host (me) and...you won't. Should you find yourself sanctioned after running afoul of the CF comments policy as stated and feel you have been wronged, please download and complete the Butthurt Report form below in quadruplicate; retain one copy for your personal records and send the others to the email address posted in the right sidebar. Please refrain from whining, sniveling, and/or bursting into tears and waving your chubby fists around in frustrated rage, lest you suffer an aneurysm or stroke unnecessarily. Your completed form will be reviewed and your complaint addressed whenever management feels like getting around to it. Thank you.

Categories

Archives

Notable Quotes

"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." – Claire Wolfe, 101 Things to Do 'Til the Revolution

"There are men in all ages who mean to govern well, but they mean to govern. They promise to be good masters, but they mean to be masters." — Daniel Webster

"It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged." - GK Chesterton

"The only way to live free is to live unobserved." - Etienne de la Boiete

"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or the timid." — Dwight D. Eisenhower

"To put it simply, the Left is the stupid and the insane, led by the evil. You can’t persuade the stupid or the insane and you had damn well better fight the evil." - Skeptic

"There is no better way to stamp your power on people than through the dead hand of bureaucracy. You cannot reason with paperwork." - David Black, from Turn Left For Gibraltar

"The limits of tyranny are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress." - Frederick Douglass

"Give me the media and I will make of any nation a herd of swine." - Joseph Goebbels

“I hope we once again have reminded people that man is not free unless government is limited. There’s a clear cause and effect here that is as neat and predictable as a law of physics: As government expands, liberty contracts.” - Ronald Reagan

"Ain't no misunderstanding this war. They want to rule us and aim to do it. We aim not to allow it. All there is to it." - NC Reed, from Parno's Peril

"I just want a government that fits in the box it originally came in." - Bill Whittle

Subscribe to CF!

Support options

Shameless begging

If you enjoy the site, please consider donating:

Best of the best

Neutral territory

Alternatives to shitlib social media:

Fuck you

Image swiped from The Last Refuge

2016 Fabulous 50 Blog Awards

Rss feed

RSS - entries - Entries
RSS - entries - Comments

Contact


mike at this URL dot com

All e-mails assumed to be legitimate fodder for publication, scorn, ridicule, or other public mockery unless otherwise specified

Boycott the New York Times -- Read the Real News at Larwyn's Linx

Copyright © 2020