Very much related to tonight’s Eyrie post, I fully share Spencer’s disgust with the sudden, serious wrong turn on Iran.
Well, it’s another glorious day, or something. President Donald Trump’s threats against the Islamic Republic of Iran have apparently worked, a “ceasefire” has been concluded, and as he did when he forced Israel to stop fighting Hamas when it had a chance to destroy the jihad terror group once and for all, Trump is once again hailing the dawn of peace in the Middle East:
A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
The Islamic Republic of Iran was likewise in a celebratory mood, and in its joyful exuberance, fired off a round or two of celebratory missiles and drones into Israel and the Sunni states that it has targeted since the beginning of this conflict. Fox News’ Trey Yingst reported that on “Ceasefire day 1,” Israel “took multiple waves of Iranian missile fire after the ceasefire was announced. Kuwait reports that more than two dozens drones were launched by Iran since 8am. UAE is currently under an Iranian missile attack. Iran, via state media, reports strikes against Lavan Island and the oil infrastructure there.”
At least eleven people were injured in Israel, and (Iran also) attacked Qatar and Bahrain as well as the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. The government of Israel says it supports the ceasefire but only if it is real, which it obviously isn’t.
Well, I mean, DUH; of course it isn’t. None but a wilfully blind fool could possibly imagine that it was, and/or would ever be. As the esteemed Mr Spencer closes out his brief, straight to the point essay:
Without military action, which Trump will become progressively less likely to resort to as the midterms approach, the U.S. has no leverage.
If the Islamic Republic of Iran remains in power, it will build up its strength again and then resume its jihad against Israel and the U.S. That’s one of the only two reasons truces are allowed in Islamic law: one is if the Infidel enemy converts to Islam, which is not in play here, and the other is if the enemy is winning, so as to give the warriors of jihad time to regroup and then fight again more effectively.
The Trump administration, like so many others before it, should have studied Islam and realized that the Islamic Republic is serious about Islam above all. Then it would have known that when the Islamic Republic’s leaders showed a willingness to conclude a ceasefire, they were tacitly admitting that they were losing. It was time to press forward to final victory, not to stop fighting. And so another opportunity to rid the world of a jihad threat is lost, another chimera of peace is announced, and the jihadis will rejoice that they have survived to fight another day, as yet another Western government has kicked the can down the road instead of defeating them.
I truly hate having to say it, but that’s precisely what has happened here, to my eternal mystification and deep, deep disappointment. Bitterly clinging to the forlorn belief that this is all part of some Grand Strategic Plan is about as helpful as trying to polish a turd. To quote my own Eyrie piece:
Bottom line: as long as an Ayatollah, any Ayatollah (even one Trump idiotically assures us is a “reasonable” “moderate”), remains in charge of the nation-state entity known as “the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the war ain’t done yet.
Ah, would that t’were not so. But alas, here we all are.
- Entries
We had our bastard in Iran, and he had two jobs: don’t talk to Communists, and keep a lid on the Shiites. The Shiites finally won.
There are about 90 million Shiites in Iran. They are so Islam-y, even the Taliban get creeped out. We’re going to need a new bastard, of a magnitude greater than one Saddam. (B < 1 SH)
What’s good for us is the new precedent where, when we have a war, we kill the enemy leaders first. That’s a game-changer.
It will take persistence and luck to find the right bastard. For this to work, there has to be someone in Iran who is hard enough to keep the Shiites down, and cold enough to save his own ass at any cost. The IRGC are in charge of the country now, so we won’t have to settle for an outright Mullah-ocracy. Of course the IRGC are crazy too.
It’s an iterative process. We’ll probably have to disqualify the first few candidates, and that could take a while. Whether we can maintain focus long enough is an open question.
There is no principled, straight-line military solution where we get to have everything our own way. There never was. If the war ends well, it will look kind of like this.