Recently in a non political blog someone made the following reference “the recession that is coming”. Politics there are not allowed. I just mentioned that the persons crystal ball *might* be broken.
I, among others, have predicted increasing GDP – 2nd quarter was 3.8%, thank you. The Trump economic model is at its core, increasing GDP which will grow us out of debt and solve our past money issues. Look at everything through that lens and you can understand it. Move taxation from individuals to tariffs without a constitutional amendment – check, Trump is doing it. Move producers out of china and back to the USA – check, Trump is doing it. Move employment from the federal government and into the private sector – check, Trump is doing it.
This cannot happen overnight, but any fair assessment should acknowledge the path we are on, that GDP is up, way up, nowhere near recession levels. The vast majority of economic prognosticators got it 100% wrong. Perhaps they are not economists, but rather they are marxists in disguise.
I’m not an “economist”*, and yet I (among others like Kenny) seem to be right about 90% of the time while the so called economists are wrong about 90% of the time. In fact, the “economists” are really just marxist political operators.
Hey Economists, Where is the Trump recession?
*OTOH, I did study economics and have an understanding of it, apparently better than the average economist
- Entries
I think this quarter should be a little slower, since the transition from a Blue Model Of Massive Government and Illegal Labor to Private Sector and Illegals Going Bye Bye will come with some short term disruptions.
Coupled with the Fed keeping short rates up above the 2 year, even though from 6 months to 2 years is positive sloped, has slogged things down a little.
I also think we’re going to see Two Americas. Places like California seem to be doing their utmost to try to sandbag the national numbers but are only hurting themselves. Meanwhile places like FL and TX seem to be booming and NC seems to be slogging through.
Two things I see that are hopeful:
1. Gas prices just eased again after a fall earlier this year. They have to be about 18-20% lower nationally than Jan 20, 2025.
2. The Yield Curve shifted right after the Election from negative sloped to positive sloped. Aside from that short term glitch it is still positively sloped. That means longer rates of borrowing are higher than shorter rates. Which is normal and indicates an expanding economy.
Negative sloped curves signal Recession. Biteme’s Admin saw the curve go Negative in early 2022 and it stayed that way until the Election was won by Trump.
I personally think the rest of the year will have similar GDP numbers, give or take a point or two. Momentum is in place and I expect next year to be in the 4+ GDP range. That will be “fueled” by fuel costs and the return of capital to the USA being put to work here at home.
Economics may use tons of fancy partial differential equations, linear algebra, and other fancy math, but there are too many uncontrolled variables, too many known unknowns, and too many unknown unknowns, for it to be any sort of exact science. Economics essentially is the same problem as weather forecasting – and this paper shows why long-term (>10 day) forecasting is impossible: https://scispace.com/papers/deterministic-nonperiodic-flow-1k20vjsax3 In the end, it’s just more sociology.
I wouldn’t bother reading your stupid paper. Many of us are able to make accurate long term forecasts in spite of the fact it isn’t an exact science.
If you had a point worth making you would do it, but you have Trump derangement syndrome and are blind.
The same type who couldn’t fathom in early 1982 the Reaganomics effects
It really isn’t rocket science. An imperfect science, but not impossible.
I dunno Barry, I think you and hhluce are talking about different things.
There’s nuts-and-bolts, cause-and-effect economics, the kind of thing Hazlitt talked about in Economics In One Lesson. Propositions like:
— Human need and economic demand are not the same thing. Human need plus purchasing power equals economic demand. No purchasing power means no economic demand, regardless of need.
— Inflation does not destroy real wealth. Inflation redistributes real wealth. Inflationary policy is no different in principle from tax-and-spend.
Concepts like that are sound and will lead to sound predictions. What hhluce is talking about is Krugman-style economics, which is science without theory. You have all these ideas lying around, and a bunch of higher-order math, and you get tons of scholarship. But you never get a testable hypothesis that actually stands the test, and your powers of prediction run about equal with untrained human intuition.
hhluce describes it pretty well.
In other words they pretend there is a precision to what they’re doing which is in fact not achievable.
But Krugman uses all the fancy pants math only to obscure, not enlighten. He is not doing economics, he is doing political propaganda.
And he knows it.
Well stated.
“hhluce describes it pretty well.”
Hhluce didn’t describe anything. The Trump deranged maniac linked to a paper about “Deterministic nonperiodic flow”. While one may infer that non deterministic systems are analogic to economic systems, the evidence of such is not presented by HHluce nor is it present in the paper linked.
In fact, while the economy has many influences, there are certain major ones that define the normal state. That state can be good or bad and is then subject to difficult to predict fluctuation. It is the normal state that one can predict rather easily – The Trump economic plan will result in prosperity and wealth for America rather than the current decline we are on.
It is so good that in the Trump first term the deep state released a new virus in order to use psychology to shut the entire planet down – all to STOP TRUMP – and stop Americans from learning how easy it is to have a viable functioning economy that produces wealth for all.
Nope, sorry, but hhluce didn’t describe anything of value. Entirely predictable and normal.
I do expect not a Trump recession, but an AI collapse.
I’m not sure what your statement implies –
Perhaps it is what does a world look like that doesn’t require individuals to work?
I have seen no one give a reasonable scenario of what the world looks like, how it works, when from the moment of birth one is not required to work and will never need or want for anything.
I know what I think the eventual result will be – extinction of humans. But no big deal, unless we get off this planet and out of the solar system and establish self sustaining human life elsewhere, we are doomed anyway.