Was the Prigozhin Putsch a Putin put-up job?
The unexpected thing that happened however was Putin transferred a large number of Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Belarus.
Now why the fuck did they do that?
I think I have an idea.
So…Wagner had some ‘issues’ with the MOD and Priggy got all riled up on the regular…yelling screaming, various ‘incidents’ that were, oddly enough publicized by the Russians themselves, which had the NATO kids and the Krainians all happy as it showed ‘fractures’ in the SMO and it’s most effective group Wagner. Wagner being a Private Military Company, not fully subordinate to the MoD, but hey…they did do the majority of the heavy lifting.
Now. Not getting into the whole breakdown of the “Who How Where and Why” of this mutiny. What I noticed was the pattern of it…Priggy and his boys, with very little interference from the “Regular Army” started marching North towards Moscow with the “intent of throwing Shoigu and Gerasimov out” and possibly taking control of Russia itself and throwing Putin out completely.
Needless to say, the US and the Krain practically nutted on themselves on the word of this coming out, but there’s also some word leaking that they (NATO et. al.) had a hand in this and had paid off Priggy to do this exact thing…we’ll never know the truth but the RUMINT is flying around out there…
Either way, what got MY attention was where Priggy and his boys had stopped on their Magical Mutiny Tour:
Looking on Google Erf, Elets or Yelets has a major East-West Highway which hooks onto another major highway…now, supposedly Wagner and Prigozhin have accepted “exile” in Belarus. And the reports are they stopped in Elets, hooked a left, and drove down into Belarus…word is it about 25k troops that went with him, with about another 10k staying behind.
Now, to me?
Putin doesn’t let reporters who say bad things about him in the news live.
Why the fuck isn’t Priggy and his boys being jailed or at least Prigozhin himself? Putins killed for a hell of a lot less offenses. And then, as it’s been stated before, the fact that the Russian DotMil essentially didn’t raise a finger to stop him? Granted there were a couple of choppers and planes ‘supposedly’ shot down, but that, to me remains to be seen, as the propaganda these days? Almost impossible to sort the wheat from the chaff.
I do know and have gotten word on where Wagner did end up:
The NATO Kids and everyone was so thrilled at the idea of a Mutiny, how much you want to bet that they started moving equipment towards the southern Edge of the Battlespace with the intent of pushing (again) into the Kherson A.O.? Any bets they didn’t think this might be a head-fake?
‘Cos now they have the Russian Tip of The Spear sitting about a HOP-SKIP-AND-A-JUMP from the Heart of Kiev.
This “mutiny” was an active Markirovka that allowed Putin to move 25-35000 of his most hardcore fighters openly and publically to the very edge of Kiev, and NO ONE NOTICED OR REALIZED IT.
Well Played, if in fact this’s what was the case.
I’d say so, yeah. Not to worry though, the “Free” World is in the very best of hands; Biden’s Bunglers are on the case, and no doubt know exactly what they’re doing, here as everywhere else. I’m confident their countermove is going to be every bit as brilliant as their Sooperdoopergenius!™ ploy of getting the Ukraine-Russia prelude to “nooklear combat toe-to-toe with the Russkies” underway to begin with was. Sing that sweet song of “victory” one more time for us, MAJ Kong!
If you’ve never seen Stanley Kubrick’s bitterly sardonic masterpiece Dr Strangelove, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb before, right about now would probably be a great time to remedy that deficiency in your education, I’m thinking. Y’know, before it’s too late, and little luxuries such as movie megaplexes, video rental kiosks, online streaming outlets, and Teh Innarnuts itself all become rare as teats on a boar hog.
Update! Aesop, as is his wont, begs to differ—YUUUUGELY. Who knows, really? The only thing we can safely assume is that nobody outside the directly-involved players in the Kremlin and the Wagner camp do for sure. Since Pedo Jaux Biden doesn’t even know what year it is anymore, and “his” team of soi disant “intellectuals” and “elites” are likewise clueless mouthbreathers themselves, it’s a lead-pipe cinch that they certainly don’t. Me, I‘m with the meme a hunnert and ten percent.
Ever more interesting update! Most intriguing take to date would have to be Kim Dotcom’s. Entertaining as all get-out, too.
🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/OkzTYUtFgr
— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom)
I like it. I really, really like it. Well done, DDC. Via Dave Renegade and GP.
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It’s as plausible as any other scenario. In any case, if correct, we should know very soon as a move on Kiev would need to happen soon to take any advantage of the “surprise” troop basing in Belarus.
I’ve read a number of comments today mentioning how odd it was that the Wagner group should end up so close to Kiev, and mentioning the idea that the USA was conned out of 6 billion. Others think it plausible as well.
Why I throw a bit of caution up –
Prigozhin has been highly critical of the Russian plan for months, publicly critical. He has refrained from calling out Putin directly, but it hits mighty close. The latest critique is not something new.
To pull off this ruse didn’t require Prigozhin to criticize the reasoning for the war, which he did (and was right IMO). That will cause any number of already unhappy men in the field to wonder why they need to risk their lives, which is not the morale booster the Russians need after 1 and 1/2 years into their little special operation.
The ruse wasn’t really required for the Wagner group to move troops into Belarus, they could just go anytime. There is no one to stop them.
If this is the case, then it means Putin and Prigozhin have a high degree of trust in each other, something Russians do not generally have. It would have been quite risky for Putin to allow this, creating a tempting opportunity. And the same is true of Prigozhin, Putin could have him shot immediately for treason with no one the wiser.
One would assume for this kind of ruse to work, secrecy would be required. So, the Wagner troops were marching on Moscow in the belief they were going to expel the current regime. What do those folks think now? Were they used? Does a paycheck make up for that? A lot of risk in making a mercenary band unhappy. Prigozhin could find himself in front of his own hostile men. They have heard Prigozhin’s criticism of why they are in this war. Do they care? Maybe not since they are mercenaries. But they are Russians first and not normally tasked with killing their own.
And last, why now? What has changed that the Russians need to risk alienating the Wagner troops and their own Russian troops? They’ve been at this a year and a half.
There is a lot of speculation on what happened, and why it changed (if not an elaborate ruse). I don’t have any insight myself other than to suggest all is not what it seems. It’s just possible a deal was reached based on a situation we know nothing about. Without all the information it’s difficult to make an assessment. And one thing is absolutely certain, we have a deficit of information.
Another take:
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/06/25/sunday-talks-anthony-blinken-spins-a-tale-of-woe-for-vladimir-putin/#more-248140
So you’re going to go with Blinken?
Prigo criticizing the War sold it but it was WAY out of character. He’s a Hardliner that has been extremely vocal that this War was necessary but Putin was getting bad advice and should be more brutal in his attacks.
Heck, Prigo started Wagner in 2014, after.our Coup, to get the War in Donbas going since he saw the tactical problem with trying to defend Crimea, and the absolutely VITAL military base there without Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea.
I can’t imagine how you would think I’m “going to go with Blinken“.
That’s a link to Sundance who puts up what the blinken lies are. Just presenting the different views.
And I know who the Wagner group and leaders are, when they were formed, and who their client is. They are an evil group, as are all russian groups. My greatest desire would be to see them all kill each other.
I have no clue what is going on. I don’t think anyone does. Until there is something more concrete I’ll go with what I have said previously, knowing it has a snowballs chance in hell of being correct.
What is Clear:
The vaunted (by internet ignorants) russian military has been in a battle of its own choosing along its own border for 1 and a half years. They are a 3rd world country with a turd world military. And right now the whole country is in chaos.
That substack bag of gas fails on one obvious point:
Prigozhin is going to Belarus for R&R. All by himself. (Okay, maybe a handful of retainers for bodyguards, but no more than that.)
His Wagner Group groupies are not.
He was conspicuously and deliberately separated (and defanged, in the moment, and on purpose) from his weapon of choice, i.e. the 25K Wagner combat vets who marched unopposed to with 120 miles of Moscow before he desisted.
_____
If somebody’s going to do analysis, they need to start with the actual situation in reality, before spinning fairytales out of whole cloth, based on Things That Are Not So.
Word To Your Mother:
The crowds in Rostov were cheering Prighozin as he left, and chanting “Wagner! Wagner!” after the stand-down deal was struck.
Putin, OTOH, and all his top generals and toadies, haven’t been seen in public since they fled Moscow to some luxury North Russia dachau/bunker shortly after they learned Prighozin and his Merry Men were on the march to the Kremlin.
Pooty Poot hasn’t been seen in public since this broke out.
Do an experiment:
Call out CJCS Gen. Milley Cyrus.
Shoot down a couple of military helicopters on the way, and seize the base HQ at, say, Ft. Bragg (or Fort Faggot, or whatever the Army is calling it these days), or better yet, Fort Knox.
Then let me know if you receive a full pardon, and a vacation on St. Croix or Maui from the US A.G., or whether, like David Koresh, they strafe you, including your women and children, burn your house down, and prosecute the few pitiful survivors as enemies of the state.
This is the difference between a coup against a weakling, and a coup against a strong leader holding all the cards.
“Prigozhin is going to Belarus for R&R. All by himself. (Okay, maybe a handful of retainers for bodyguards, but no more than that.)”
I’ve seen various reports that the Wagner group numbering in the thousands are on their way to Belarus. I have no idea what is true. Where did you find that it was essentially just Prigozhin?*
*that would comport with my thinking that he made a deal, based upon something we don’t know/understand. Maybe 🙂
Like what was noted, the only source that confirms they group returned back to whence they came had to be inside Russia.
Plus, there were supposedly only 5,000 in that column.
How many tanks were there though? That should be even easier to determine than the number of troops and yet I see no numbers.
Another take, not to far from what I think occurred. McGregor thinks it was never intended as a coup, but as protest against a 1.5 year old war going nowhere fast.
https://www.independentsentinel.com/col-mcgregor-explains-the-russian-coup-perfectly/
How perspicacious of MacGregor, since a protest against the war and explicitly a non-coup with no intention of removing Putin is exactly what Prigozhin announced he was doing, over and over, starting Friday night. I haven’t seen MacGregor’s caliber of legerdemain since Professor Marvel told Dorothy’s fortune in The Wizard Of Oz.
“…exactly what Prigozhin announced…”
And russians never lie. /s
I have not seen any reference to Prigozhin saying that prior to the march on Moscow. Possible I just missed it among all the other shit. What I did see reported were denunciations of the russian military and the need to get rid of the top leadership, which is pretty much a coup attempt.
Now, what did he really say? I don’t know as I have only read reports of what he said and all reporting is suspect.
He was quoted in video before, during, and after the march as bitching at Shoigu and Gerasimov, not Putin.
They’ve been a flaming pain in Prighozin’s ass for months, and them bombing his troops “accidentally” Friday morning was the last straw, apparently.
“He was quoted in video before, during, and after the march as bitching at Shoigu and Gerasimov, not Putin.”
Yes, as I noted in the first comment in this thread –
“Prigozhin has been highly critical of the Russian plan for months, publicly critical. He has refrained from calling out Putin directly, but it hits mighty close. The latest critique is not something new.”
That is not the same as “…exactly what Prigozhin announced…” in my opinion as supporting the idea it was never a coup attempt.
In any event it’s clear there are multiple theory’s and no one knows the truth outside the two P’s.
Protest? Doesn’t fly.
Prigozhin could just as easily have been killed here for failing. Which is the much more ordinary result of a failed rebellion.
Another point that seems “off”.
Not my take entirely, but it seems plausible.
It was something, what was it then?
It is perhaps an elaborate ruse, not to move troops though (IMO). If you remove the troop movement as the purpose of the ruse, then what?
Maybe it’s just what it appears to be, Prigozhin was pissed at the russian command that allowed the russian soldiers (mercenary or conscript) to bleed out for no discernible reason and decided to end that one way or another.
You don’t risk getting yourself and your whole family killed by staging a Fake Coup and then say “Just kidding, I was angry at the Generals”
You voice your displeasure repeatedly to Putin. Simply as that. Why stage a Coup? Way too dangerous.
OK, then why? Explain what you think it was.
Moving troops to Belarus is easy to disprove since they aren’t there.
He was working with Putin for some reason. Either to move troops around and pretend they were still somewhere else is one scenario.
The other is that the CIA tossed a bunch of money his way thinking they could turn a mercenary and promised him others would join in. But Prigozhin went to Putin first and turned THEM in. They split the bux and pulled one over on the CIA. I wonder if we’ll get to hear about some other generals falling out windows.
Another scenario is he WASN’T working with Putin but WAS working with some other Generals and they double crossed him. The problem with that is he’d be dead now. UNLESS…Putin views Ukraine as a priority and doesn’t want Russian on Russian fighting jeopardizing that.
The problem with any scenario in which Progozhin WASN’T working with Putin is that He DIDN’T send enough troops if we take this at face value. Even 25-30,000 probably couldn’t do the job. So, Putin would HAVE TO KNOW that someone, and especially some Air Force people, HAD to be the Generals Prigozhin was counting on. We would already be seeing the Purges by now. Putin has to be aware SOMETHING like this could happen when he pulled the Wagner Group out of Ukraine. He would have had intelligence gathered about loyalty.
So, I am just broaching a number of scenarios I’ve heard as all plausible. I STILL see Prigozhin somehow working with Putin as the MOST Probable.
OK, gotcha. Fact is none of us know anything but what we’re fed by the media, which typically has some objective or other rather than the simple dissemination of the news.
I’ve read all the scenario’s I think. And none make any real sense. But then, as my old secretary* would say, they’re russian, they never do “sense”.
*russian, highly educated, multi lingual, slipped out before the iron curtain fell
Meanwhile they were feeding places like Fox the idea that only 5,000 troops were in that column and an unknown number of tanks. (They never did disclose the number of tanks).
The idea that 5,000 troops in some tanks were going to traverse 400 miles or more and get to Moscow and overthrow the government when they didn’t have any air cover sounded ridiculous.
This is certainly an excellent working theory.
Interesting factoid about the place they supposedly “halted”.
Plus the idea that the bulk of the troops were still in Rostov an interesting subterfuge if you really wanted to move them into position 400 miles north and then 50-100 miles East or so…
Thinking that a column of tanks is going to travel 400 miles at speed and not lose more than half to thrown tracks and other delays is optimistic.
You’re behind the news cycle, and OBE, Steve: multiple videos showed the Wagner column transporting most of their armor on transporters, like serious armies do.
Considering no one in the entire Russian Army besides Shoigu seems to have been too concerned with stopping them anywhere on their odyssey, any concerns about air power were pretty much moot.
The last time any army did any more obvious Olé blocking, it was the French “trying” to stop Napoleon’s return from Elba.
Way behind. Busy.
Armies in a secure zone move their tracked vehicles on trains or other transporters. Armies invading a hostile power keep their tracked vehicles on the ground. Makes ya wonder, under the circumstances…
good point on keeping the tracks down if you are expecting a battle.
Curiouser and curiouser cried Alice.
They faced no serious opposition, and notably no one was willing to take a bullet for Putin.
Which is why Pooty and his generals fled Moscow ricky tik, and they “solved” this in less than a day.
Pretty much the same thing that happened the last time Hollywood let the Teamsters go on strike,
Lasted about 45 minutes, and the studios begged for a settlement.
There is no credible evidence Putin left Moscow.
They didn’t shed any blood because this was doomed to fail. Why escalate when you can just talk the guy down from the ledge? Which they did and cut a deal.
I also STILL think this might be a great subterfuge to get troops into Belarus when they’re supposedly still down in Rostov getting disbanded.
Why do you think they need the cover of a coup to move troops to Belarus? It can’t be done secretly and there is absolutely nothing that prevents the russians from driving into belarus with their army of conscripts or the Wagner mercenary force. The movement of troops and the supply chain cannot be done in secret, not for a 10K + force.
Aren’t they more vulnerable to air assault on transporters?
No one’s seen the Russian Air Farce since last April.
The best tally during the insurgency has Wagner losing a couple of trucks to helo gunships, and Wagner Group destroying 6-7 a/c with organic weapons.
Advantage: Wagner.
Here’s a pretty comprehensive but brief summation of the whole sh*tshow:
Coup in Russia: Prigozhin FINALLY Breaks Silence On Coup – YouTube
No one’s seen the Russian Airforce?
Once again, cite?
Without an air force Ukraine would be strafing them in Donbas mercilessly.
C’mon man, don’t piss on our heads and tell us it’s raining.
The russian air farce has been pretty much non existent throughout their failed war on the Ukraine. The Ukraine air force is practically non existent, and has no bombers capable of carrying out “strafing” runs. They have old russian fighters that they continue to repair.
The Ukraine pilots are not stupid enough to go up against the modern russian fighters that are much better when they do show up.
No air war, because there is little air power in Ukraine that needs to be resisted.