A: Probably so, yeah. A better question: Ought we to be? Do our current circumstances require such a terrible, desperate endeavor of us? A: Well, according to the Founders at any rate, indubitably so.
Before I get into my analysis, I want to make it clear I believe that anyone who wants a civil war to happen in the U.S. is dangerously naïve, insane, or working for one of America’s enemies. Imagine a Russia-Ukraine-type conflict in the U.S.
Thanks to Hollywood, most Americans believe that rebellions can be started and won by small ragtag groups of patriots, freedom fighters, insurrectionists, or everyday common folk. All you need are pistols, assault weapons, bows and arrows, and maybe a few Molotov cocktails. Blow up the Death Star, and the problem is solved.
But that is not how it usually works. Revolutions require armaments, soldiers, money, something worth fighting for, and popular support. Unless lives are at stake, few people are angry or committed enough to leave jobs or families to risk going to jail or dying needlessly.
The most daunting task is overcoming the opposition. The weaponry and manpower available to peacekeepers in our country is formidable. This includes the local sheriff’s departments, city police, state police, National Guard, and various federal agencies, most notably the FBI. Plus, in a crisis, these organizations will usually work together. An uprising of twenty, fifty, or even a hundred-plus armed citizens would quickly fail.
Follows, a capsule review of American history, from the Revolution to the Whiskey Rebellion to CW1, even the Weather Undeground, of all things. Then:
You might notice a pattern here. First, important issues divide our country, like independence versus obedience to the king or slavery versus freedom. Then, either a military skirmish occurs before sides get chosen or sides get chosen before the military gets involved. Both the Revolution and the Civil War were started by state military organizations, not by groups of armed radicals.
We are at a similar junction in history right now. Politics has divided the country, and the pivotal issue is unlimited illegal immigration. Few wanted it. No one expected it when he voted for Biden. And now almost no one is willing to pay the price socially or financially to support it.
The White House may have believed that its open border policy would get someone, anyone, to pick up a gun to stop the madness. It would give Biden an excuse to impose martial law, ban assault weapons or handguns, or both. But the horde of right-wing extremists the far-left fantasizes about does not exist.
It seems the administration may have gone too far too fast. The whole country is aware of this issue, and opposition is rising, leading the states to get directly involved.
The Texas National Guard has been sent to the border to stop the flow of migrants. Roughly half of the states have declared their support for Texas.
If Democrats want to continue unlimited illegal immigration, Biden could nationalize the Texas National Guard, take control, and send it home. But what happens if Texas says no? Would Biden order the armed forces to disarm or attack the Texas Guard? Would the use of the armed forces be legal? Do Democrats care?
History tells us that civil wars happen when our country is divided and the states believe they must get involved. That time may be at hand.
Pray that sanity prevails.
Fair enough. On the other hand, though, it suggests another important Q: If “sanity” necessarily means acceptance of the Superstate status quo, should Real Americans who are seriously dedicated to the Founding principles of ordered liberty, self-determination, and limited government really be praying for it? Viewed in that light, can praying for such a thing even be considered truly sane at all? Or ought it to be thought of instead as what it truly amounts to: surrender?
As I’ve said all too many times over the past cpl-three years, I have no good answers. In fact, I strongly suspect there aren’t any, quite frankly. At this late date, things have gone much too far for any practical, effective answer that any sane soul would think of as “good.” Seems to me that no matter which route we choose, we’re in for some serious trouble, turmoil, tragedy, and loss. Best-case scenario is that I’m so full of shit my eyes are brown, which I do admit is eminently possible. Last I checked, they were still hazel, alas.
Update! The more I think about this sad, sorry situation, the more thoroughly I understand what the old phrase “between a rock and a hard place” means. Verily, it’s a real Hobson’s Choice we’re up against here.
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That was anal-asis, not analysis, from the OP.
Meaning “pulled from one’s @$$”.
1) A “civil war” will be neither.
2) All those “state forces”? Gone in hours. The smart ones will sideline themselves, out of self-preservation. The rest will become re-supply points for the insurgency. Rapidly.
3) Given the armament of the populace, and the political direction in which it skews, Team Oppression is out of both players and most NPCs by Thursday of a Monday kickoff. Most of that is mop-up, as about four volleys would rid the playing field of organized contestants.
4) That’s not saying everything would be over in a few days. It won’t start everywhere all at once, and it won’t end until it spreads everywhere. That’s what’s going to take the time. But once the fire spreads, it will get out of hand, and there won’t be any “safe spaces”. Getting through that is what will take some time.
Bear well in mind that the only reason The Powers That Be can do anydamnedthing at all, 24/7/365/For250Years, is this cute little concept called “consent of the governed”. If, for but one example, nisei and naturalized Japanese-American citizens had contested FDR’s round-ups after Pearl Harbor with arms, we would have been digging them out of cities until about 1957, they would have tied up 8 divisions of troops and wiped out another 2 back when we didn’t have that many, and the last hold out wouldn’t have surrendered to authorities until about 1975, either from underground storm drain/sewer lairs, hideouts deep in western U.S. forests and Hawaiian rainforests, or all of the above.
If any city’s citizenry, even as little as 5%, decided they’d well and truly had it with the police in their town, there’d be no cops left there in about a week, and their respective city government leaders would have been hanged, beheaded, shot, and/or burned to death before that. (Most cops know this. City leadership, not so much. Remedial education on that point is gonna be a cast-iron bitch.)
That is the knife-edge of “consent of the governed” civilization lives on.
We haven’t reached the point where that’s an issue anywhere, not even in Texas at the border, because if we had, there wouldn’t be a live Mexican within 200 miles of Texas by noon next Wednesday, and border crossings would end along that stretch of border for 20 years, and even then, only after Americans decamped from the 20-mile wide scorched earth No Man’s Land buffer zone that would spring up in hours starting at the Rio Grande, and anyone resisting or interfering would decorate bridges hung feet-up from El Paso to the Gulf Of Mexico, and their heads would be on top of every border mile marker along the boundary line, whether American or illegal alien.
And FTR, that approach IS sanity.
What we’re seeing now is how long we’ll tolerate the current INsanity before the pendulum swings back. The farther they keep pushing it, the faster and more destructive will be the return to the center, and the resultant over-travel in the opposite direction.