In all honesty, we were never going to back Taiwan with anything more than a “strong statement” of condemnation, whether Zhou Bai-Ding was pretending to be “***President***” or not.
I’ve heard multiple rumors of an incipient invasion of Taiwan – incipient meaning sometime in September or October – from various sources. Some of them are flying around the chans, as AC notes:
There was an anon on 4Chan who claimed to be an insider at State, and he said China offered Biden a deal – they would tell him when the Taiwan invasion would begin, and in return he would not tell Taiwan, and he would promise to not get involved. Supposedly Biden took the deal, and the date is Sept 25th. Supposedly it will be two weeks of aerial bombardment, followed by a land invasion.
I’m very skeptical of that particular rumor, because I expect Taiwan to submit within 24 hours of the mainland launching an attack of any kind. Unless the Red Army begins with an invasion, there shouldn’t be any need for anything more than a relatively peaceful occupation.
While I have no trouble at all believing that the amoral, treacherous snake Biden* would make such a deal without so much as batting an eye, and think myself that China will indeed have been emboldened enough by the US show of supine weakness that was the Biden Bugout to be confident they can make their long-dreamed-of move at last with total impunity, I too find this particular rumor…ummm, not credible, shall we say. Bill puts it more bluntly.
Something may happen in September. That certainly wouldn’t surprise me, especially given the pathetic state of the US government and its military. But far more likely is the abrupt announcement that, after secret talks, Taiwan has agreed to a deal similar to the one Hong Kong got when the British Empire and its guarantees crumbled away.
The American Empire’s guarantees to Taiwan are now revealed as equally flimsy and precarious, and I expect the outcome to be similar. Certainly no other force in the world can guarantee Taiwan’s independence, and I think all sides now understand this.
Having made such a habit of floundering and flailing our way into (and then out of, tails tightly tucked) several brush-fire conflicts over the last couple of decades alone, it is now abundantly clear that there ain’t no way our paper-tiger military could guarantee Tawain’s independence either. Or anybody else’s for that matter, including our own.
Which is not necessarily the fault of the rank and file soldiery, of course, but that of its overlawyered High Command, along with a cringing, milquetoast body politic that can no longer abide war of any intensity or fought for any cause, and who faint dead away at the mere thought of aggression, conflict, and/or bloodshed.
Higher, for its part, works a lot harder these days at getting in the way of the boys on the sharp end to the greatest extent possible, with their absurd ROEs and their cringing over “collateral damage” and such-like, than they do at finding ways to kill and defeat the enemy. Although with the New Woke Model Army we’re busy a-building, that’s changing fast; the rank and file is becoming every bit as effete and inept as their mincing leadership. Which, given how things are going lately, might turn out to be a GOOD thing for the rest of us before all is said and done.
As for Taiwan, along with any other of our hapless allies who were gullible enough to take US promises to defend them at all seriously: Sorry, suckers, and so long. You’ve been hoodwinked, bamboozled, and are on your own. Like every small-time left-wing dictatorship, this one will expend way more time, effort and resources on subjugating and doing damage to its domestic population than it ever will trying to live up to its foreign-treaty obligations. Being of the exact same stripe itself, Red China’s dictators are fully aware of this, which bodes extremely not-well for Taiwan in particular.
*PLEASE NOTE: Any time I mention “***President***” Biden, especially to say he’s done this or will do that or the other thing, do be aware that it’s actually the puppeteer who has his hand up Faux Jaux’s shirt and is making his mouth move I’m really referring to
Why doesn’t anyone think Taiwan has a say in all of this?
I imagine they know all about the weakness of China.
Among many, Three Gorges Dam.
HK had no real military capability of it’s own and is attached to mainland China. There is no real comparison.
I don’t know enough about Taiwan’s internal situation to know which way they may choose. Certainly the example of what has happened to Hong Kong would have to deter anyone with a working brain from taking a similar deal. But Taiwan does a huge amount of business with the mainland, and I am sure the Chicoms have bought and subverted many of Taiwan’s leaders much as they have the USA’s. A “peaceful reunification” deal with huge numbers of average Taiwanese scrambling to get foreign passports and emigrate is a real possibility.
I cannot know what I don’t know, it’s possible the leaders of Taiwan have sold out.
OTOH, I have been to Taiwan, worked with Taiwanese outside of Taiwan, and they almost all express a deep hatred of the Chinese mainland.
They cannot win a war with China. They can cause pain for China IMO, and should they resist 100%* then what do the Chinese get when finished?
The chinese taking Taiwan is not nearly as simple as I see it made out to be.
*that would include destruction of chip manufacturing facilities, something the chinese depend upon, not just the rest of the world.
Note, I didn’t suggest a missile, and despite the report sited, if the Taiwanese have any sense (and they do) they would have their own defensive plans including the appropriate bombs including the means to deliver them. A dam of that type is normally not so easy to bring down externally. That dam is already weak and may fail on its own at anytime. The right explosive devices may very well expose that weakness.
Taiwan’s Military Is a Hollow Shell – Anti-Empire
Why I Fear For Taiwan – The Scholar’s Stage
Taiwan’s government is perhaps even more rotten, corrupt, and subverted than our own, and its military is nowhere near as strong as Americans assume. Hence my prediction that the Taiwanese ruling class will act to save its own skin with a deal of some sort rather than going to all-out war.
Taiwan’s ruling class must know that the alligator will eventually eat them too. It’s what commies always do.
I can’t say you’re wrong, I just am less inclined to think the way you do. I seriously doubt the leadership of Taiwan will sell out, but that’s based on knowing Taiwanese citizens, not politicians. I can’t imagine they think a deal with China does anything for them but bring slavery to the island.
I’m under no illusion about the Taiwanese military capability. Regardless of your links and the views expressed, the Taiwanese cannot win a conventional war with China, but they can make the price too high.
My prediction – a year from now will be the same as today.
Can China afford to kill Taiwan?
Bill’s opinion is the leaders of Taiwan will capitulate which would avoid supply disruptions.
It’s the only way to avoid island destruction that China cannot afford. OTOH, why would the Taiwanese choose the path of slavery?
My opinion is just that the ability of the Taiwanese is overlooked and the situation is not so simple. Chinese takeover of Taiwan is going to be very messy and quite possibly kill the goose that lay the golden egg.
2nd, in spite of the chinese owning biden, there is no shortage of people that know what a Taiwanese takeover means for the USA. I’m not so certain the USA doesn’t hold to its commitments.
Taiwan is not Afghanistan. A lot more at stake.
A ChiCom takeover of Taiwan being bad for the USA makes it more likely the Biden regime would abandon Taiwan to the ChiComs.
If the ChiComs decide they want Taiwan badly enough, I don’t see much that the Taiwanese could do to stop them. Nukes maybe, if they have them. Otherwise the force disparity is almost certainly too great. But it would likely be a very messy process for the ChiComs, both the invasion and the follow up pacification. Not that the western media would portray it as such. The PLA would be hailed as mighty conquerors…errr, liberators, yes, that’s it, liberators of the poor oppressed Taiwanese who have been yearning for reunification with the mother land! If it wasn’t for the false promises of the Bad Orange Man it would all be peaceful and happy and no fighting, a joyful reunion of parted brothers.
*spit* That is the kind of media reporting I would expect to see in the US.
Taiwan is no Afghanistan.