In all honesty, we were never going to back Taiwan with anything more than a “strong statement” of condemnation, whether Zhou Bai-Ding was pretending to be “***President***” or not.
I’ve heard multiple rumors of an incipient invasion of Taiwan – incipient meaning sometime in September or October – from various sources. Some of them are flying around the chans, as AC notes:
There was an anon on 4Chan who claimed to be an insider at State, and he said China offered Biden a deal – they would tell him when the Taiwan invasion would begin, and in return he would not tell Taiwan, and he would promise to not get involved. Supposedly Biden took the deal, and the date is Sept 25th. Supposedly it will be two weeks of aerial bombardment, followed by a land invasion.
I’m very skeptical of that particular rumor, because I expect Taiwan to submit within 24 hours of the mainland launching an attack of any kind. Unless the Red Army begins with an invasion, there shouldn’t be any need for anything more than a relatively peaceful occupation.
While I have no trouble at all believing that the amoral, treacherous snake Biden* would make such a deal without so much as batting an eye, and think myself that China will indeed have been emboldened enough by the US show of supine weakness that was the Biden Bugout to be confident they can make their long-dreamed-of move at last with total impunity, I too find this particular rumor…ummm, not credible, shall we say. Bill puts it more bluntly.
Something may happen in September. That certainly wouldn’t surprise me, especially given the pathetic state of the US government and its military. But far more likely is the abrupt announcement that, after secret talks, Taiwan has agreed to a deal similar to the one Hong Kong got when the British Empire and its guarantees crumbled away.
The American Empire’s guarantees to Taiwan are now revealed as equally flimsy and precarious, and I expect the outcome to be similar. Certainly no other force in the world can guarantee Taiwan’s independence, and I think all sides now understand this.
Having made such a habit of floundering and flailing our way into (and then out of, tails tightly tucked) several brush-fire conflicts over the last couple of decades alone, it is now abundantly clear that there ain’t no way our paper-tiger military could guarantee Tawain’s independence either. Or anybody else’s for that matter, including our own.
Which is not necessarily the fault of the rank and file soldiery, of course, but that of its overlawyered High Command, along with a cringing, milquetoast body politic that can no longer abide war of any intensity or fought for any cause, and who faint dead away at the mere thought of aggression, conflict, and/or bloodshed.
Higher, for its part, works a lot harder these days at getting in the way of the boys on the sharp end to the greatest extent possible, with their absurd ROEs and their cringing over “collateral damage” and such-like, than they do at finding ways to kill and defeat the enemy. Although with the New Woke Model Army we’re busy a-building, that’s changing fast; the rank and file is becoming every bit as effete and inept as their mincing leadership. Which, given how things are going lately, might turn out to be a GOOD thing for the rest of us before all is said and done.
As for Taiwan, along with any other of our hapless allies who were gullible enough to take US promises to defend them at all seriously: Sorry, suckers, and so long. You’ve been hoodwinked, bamboozled, and are on your own. Like every small-time left-wing dictatorship, this one will expend way more time, effort and resources on subjugating and doing damage to its domestic population than it ever will trying to live up to its foreign-treaty obligations. Being of the exact same stripe itself, Red China’s dictators are fully aware of this, which bodes extremely not-well for Taiwan in particular.
*PLEASE NOTE: Any time I mention “***President***” Biden, especially to say he’s done this or will do that or the other thing, do be aware that it’s actually the puppeteer who has his hand up Faux Jaux’s shirt and is making his mouth move I’m really referring to