This time, from Way Up North.
I’m writing this email with the proviso that it’s been several years since I last practiced law in a professional capacity, and that my Con Law training was in Canadian Con Law, but on the face of it, the Lawsuit by Texas (and now Louisiana and apparently a bunch of other states) in the Supreme Court probably opens the way to a Trump win. You’ll probably have other correspondents on this issue with more relevant legal experience but here’s my tuppence worth. I’m viewing this strictly through a legal lens although politics inevitably creeps into it. I take no view of or make any predictions concerning the likelihood of Trump crossing the Rubicon. I’m just laying out why this case matters, and why it may succeed.
My view is that what path the Court takes will largely depend upon how many States formally support Texas. If it’s only Texas, Louisiana and one or two others then the court may be inclined to take a minimalist approach. But if 15 or 20 States sign on then SCOTUS may see this as evidence that vast swathes of the country have no confidence in the fairness of the recent election and it will be more inclined to nullify election results and put this squarely in the lap of Congress. The fact that there are a half-dozen or so other states apparently joining, including Florida (so 2 of the 3 most populous states in the Union) gives credence to the view that the legitimacy of this election is seriously in doubt and the Court must act.
Lastly there’s no way GEOTUS did not know that this lawsuit was in the pipeline, nor that states other than Texas would be signing on. The fact that he recently appeared at a Rally in Georgia confirms this in my view. The more Americans get fired up and bombard there state and congressional politicians with demands that they honour the will of the voter, the more likely additional states will sign on to Texas’ lawsuit, and the more GOP state legislators and congresscritters will find enough backbone to do the right thing. Of course even if SCOTUS puts this in the lap of Congress or State legislatures this does not guarantee Donald Trump will be returned as President. There’s nothing as feckless as a GOP politico being promised by Immigration lobbyists, big tech, and the Chamber of Commerce that the Benjamins will flow and that he’s got a great future as a Senator/Governor/President if he takes the statesman-like approach and ignores the yokels who voted for him. That said from a legal perspective, the outcome of the election looks a lot less certain than it did 24 hours ago.
We are now comfortably within the 15-to-20-state threshold cited above. Still a multiplicity of ways in which Texas’s USSC gambit might go pear-shaped, laudable as the effort is just the same. But I can’t imagine Clarence Thomas, at the very least, being at all willing to just sit placidly back and watch the election shenanigans play out when he and his colleagues have been presented—on the proverbial silver platter—with a perfect opportunity to make things right.
On the other hand, the Court is decidedly a part of the Deep State megalith its own self, therefore could just as easily decline to live up to its self-evident responsibility here, without further explanation to a living soul.
On the gripping hand? Who the hell even knows at this point.
All that stipulated, I find myself in agreement with our Canuck friend’s closing assessment, much to my own surprise. As I always say, we’ll find out soon enough.
Big Mo’ update! Roll on, big wheel.
Can the USSC REALLY ignore this now?