The Daily Donnybrook

Welcome to Ye Olde Colde Furye Blogge’s shiny new open-comments thread, where y’all can have at it as you wish, on any topic you like. Do note that the official CF comments policy remains in effect here, as enumerated in the left sidebar. All new posts will appear below this one. There will be blood…

Update! Don’t know why this didn’t occur to me before, but as of now there’s a separate category for TDD threads. That means that, if you so desire, from now on the old Donnybrook posts can be easily accessed via their very own category. The comments will still be closed, so I don’t know how much that will really help anybody, but still.

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kennycan

First!

Barry

🙂
You’re number one in my book.

Barry

Masks:

They are effective at certain things. Make sure to force your kids to wear them, for their health.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/scottmorefield/2021/06/15/a-group-of-parents-sent-their-kids-face-masks-to-a-lab-for-analysis-heres-what-they-found-n2591047

Ironbear

Just for gits and shiggles:

2CELLOS – The Trooper Overture [OFFICIAL VIDEO]

And, the Rage Filled One speaks!

No, Trump Did Not Invent The Election Theft “Conspiracy”

Last edited 1 month ago by Ironbear
Ironbear

And if you weren’t familiar with 2Cellos and their oveure before now, hie thee over and get thee familiar:

2Cellos video catalogue.

You won’t regret it.*

*Unless you just hate the cello and music, in which case I don’t want to know you.

kennycan

The Who couldn’t afford celloists on an early single or album track. As a placeholder they had harmonized in three parts “cello cello cello cello…” for the length of the section. They kept the vocals rather than spend the money on the celloists. History. Made.

Ironbear

Who cares? They’ve just f-f-fa-fa-faded away by this point.

There’s been music made after the ’70s.

kennycan

Sure, but better?

After 1995?

Name them.

Ironbear

Rock & Roll effectively died before Cultural Ground Zero in 1997. It became commercially created and promoted pap at some point in the early 80s, as Country did.

“Better” is your word, I never used it. If you want to introduce the straw man, you name them.

kennycan

So we agree. Most music after 1997 sux. Britpop and Psychobilly and Swing Rock (like Brian Setzer) were it’s last hurrah. At least what you are told is the Top 40 songs and Top 200 albums. You really have to dig to find things like The Belmont Playboys and Southern Culture on the Skids.

After Moon died The Who albums were meh. Some good songs wedged in between mostly mediocrities or worse.

But Endless Wire (around 2006?) was something I liked and felt was good quality throughout. Certainly not Great, but far better than anything since Who Are You at least.

David Bowie’s penultimate album I liked as well. That came out around 2012 IIRC.

As a commercial force though, Rock is Dead. Long Live Rock.

kennycan

Actually I liked Endless Wire as well.

Barry

More data on the effectiveness of masks (and screens):

In the end, there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by Covid-19.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do-masks-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19-

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/perspex-screens-installed-stop-covid-may-have-actually-increased-its-spread-uk-govt-report

Hat tip to Chad, found in the comments at DP off topic

https://www.dailypundit.com/2021/06/10/off-topic-and-reclusive/comment-page-1/#comment-71900

Barry

OK, “waiting for approval”, lets try again with fewer links to see if that is the issue –

More data on the effectiveness of masks (and screens):

“In the end, there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by Covid-19.”
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do-masks-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19-

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6817

Hat tip to Chad, found in the comments at DP off topic

Barry

Lets try zero links:

More data on the effectiveness of masks (and screens):
“In the end, there was no statistically significant difference between those who wore masks and those who did not when it came to being infected by Covid-19.”

Barry

Weird, something is broken Mike 🙂

Barry

Well, I kinda figured the first one had too many links, but then I posted with just two and still got the waiting on approval, so I thought perhaps something happened back when you made the most recent changes. Anyway, sorry to trouble you. Thanks for the rescue 🙂

SteveF

Barry, your message with two links may have been flagged for moderation because it immediately followed the message with four. Some of the filters are “dumb” and look at each message in isolation, but some keep some level of history.

Barry

Good point. I actually thought of that but have no idea what the rules are. I do remember many blogs have a 3 is too many rule, but for some reason I had thought Mike nuked that some time ago. In any event, I understand the need for the rule, just have to make multiple comments if more than 2 links are needed. And Pray 🙂

Barry

I think I remember hearing that as well. In any event, I’ve never had anything important to say, so getting delayed or rejected ain’t a big deal.

I really thought maybe something was amiss and wanted to alert you to that possibility.

Barry

At least there is some good news in the business world:

As Left Pushes Gun Control and Defunding Police, Smith & Wesson Has First Billion Dollar Sales Year

I do wish we could increase the ammunition manufacturing capability though. Lead worth more than gold these days.

Barry

It seems odd to me, to be “called” a “boomer”. My friends and I, most of the same generation, always considered ourselves to be Americans. Being American defines us, not some mythical generational construct created by people that want to create groups. My American friends would be happy to take on threats from those that have left the country and snipe at it from outside.

No one I know has ever used the term boomer or any other generational marker. You’re American, or you’re not.

It’s easy to see why a cartoon character like Vox “redacts” the basic facts reported by the commentor, since those basic facts are all about being a good American.

The comments are a hoot, filled with tough guys that think every “boomer” owes them an inheritance instead of spending it on a 1911.

The “greatest generation” sent >2.5million “boomers” to Vietnam, among other places. I suspect a vast majority of them laugh at the pillow fantasy’s of the pussy’s.

https://voxday.blogspot.com/2021/06/this-is-what-boomers-consider-epic.html#comment-form

SteveF

My friends and I, most of the same generation, always considered ourselves to be Americans. Being American defines us

-gasp-! Th-th-that’s hate speech!

Yah, I view myself as an American. It’s more important than my skin color, my religion, or my occupation. Like civis romanus sum, it’s all the declaration one needs, anywhere in the world.

Ironbear

Just as an FYI, the “Day of the Pillow” refers to the treatment that the Boomers will get from all of the Diversity Hires in the nursing homes they end up in, not to their end at the hands of Millennials and Gen-Z.

I consider myself a Texican. It’s all the declaration I need.

kennycan

A “Generation” is a group of people within a span of ages that indicates they experienced the same events within their formative years.

A “Boomer” is someone who saw a pre-Rock and Roll Post WW II Nuclear Age as a child and saw Rock and Roll and the Civil Rights Movement come on the scene. Other defining moments are the Kennedy Assassination, Hippies and Summer of Love, Woodstock and Altamont (as an event they might have possibly attended) and the JFK Assassination.

For me all of that is not “experience” but History. I have never known a world without Hippies, without JFK dead, without Rock and Roll and without a 1964 Civil Rights Act.

IMPORTANT: That does NOT mean everyone that experienced those things had the same reaction to it. For every Boomer soldier that went to Vietnam and is Proud to Have Served there is an Anti-War Hippie that spat on them. For every person who loved Rock and Roll when it hit the Big Time there were millions who hated it, from conservatives to race bigots to “folkies” (look at how Dylan got treated for “selling out”).

Far too many of Barry and I’s generation (and those of us a similar age) the Leftism remained and now they are aging Post Hippie Leftists longing for the Sixties they never had, as a nostalgia trip. Yet, there are those, like Barry and I, that were never more than Moderate Right or Conservative and remain so today. Others were Leftists as young people but soon grew out of those fantasies when they hit the real world and sobered up.

So just because a Generation can be defined, no single individual can be tagged with a label just because of when they were born. Their reactions to things then, and now, are more important.

When Vox speaks of hating a whole generation of Boomers, it is equivalent to saying you hate someone because of their skin color.

PS as I have stated before I believe that having been born in the 60’s in no way makes me a Boomer and Barry, a few years older than I, does not seem one either. As Ironbear might put it, we are another Silent Generation. Or as would say it, the Forgotten Generation lumped in with the Boomers.

Barry

Nice write up Kenny.
I was born in ’53, so pretty solidly in the boomer “generation” I think. Much of what I read that is said to be a characteristic of that generation is bullshit written by class buffoons. I know that none of my friends, born around the same time as me, fit the descriptions of the chattering class of robots commenting at VOX. It’s entertaining to read though.

Within the broad age group of those born post WW2 are those that may well have been influenced by certain events, the oldest group. If you were born in ’46 you would be near 17 when JFK was assassinated. For me at age 10, we got out of school early. Having longer hair in High school, but not hippie long, taught me how our fathers perceived us and could be quite wrong. Vietnam taught me that our government would send us to death for nothing. I wasn’t anti-VN, I was anti not winning. I was anti-not fighting. It pissed me off then and still pisses me today that 50K Americans died in a shithole for nothing. I’d be among those dead, most likely, were it not for a father and uncles that recognized their sons would be gone as soon as the age were reached and made attempts to stop us. And it worked. Landing on the moon taught me that we could.

I used to think some of what we (my friends) are is the Southern thing. As I grew up and went off to college I realized it was simply an American thing. I am reminded of my fathers first good friend in the WW2 Army, a Jewish kid from New Jersey. That was my dads first friend from outside the mountains of NC, someone that grew up in a city, and yet they were very much alike.

kennycan

By my reckoning you would be in that grey area of the leading edge of Forgotten Lumpen or the tail end of the Boomers. Given you were raised in a solid Red area of a Red State you probably tended towards being of the latter cohort.

For example, when you hit 18 the draft was almost over and Vietnam had been sold by Cronkite as a war we were losing. We weren’t. Nixon won the War by 1972. Another reason why he won in 1972 in a landslide. More about that later.

In 1964 the attitudes toward Vietnam were different. When there wasn’t 500,000 grunts on the ground there many more people understood it in the context of a winnable limited battle within the Containment and MADD concepts. Like Berlin and Korea, a strategic stalemate was the goal.

So Boomers rebellion was in fact real rebellion against a country that was angry at them for dodging the draft and protesting fighting them Commies.

That’s why you’re NOT a Boomer. By the 70’s young people were sold on the idea that Vietnam was unwinnable and we were losing. They were told by Cronkite that Tet was a massive Victory for the Viet Cong when in fact it ended the VC as an effective fighting force. From then on the North had to ship fighters down through the HCM trail as well as money, supplies and materiel. Once Nixon shut off the HCM trail with his incursions into Cambodia and Laos that strategy was unworkable as well. However, Cronkite and others called that strategy Evil and Racist in Killing Little Brown people. When Nixon bombed Hanoi, once again to screams from the Media, he forced the North to sue for peace. We had achieved the stalemate, returned our troops home, ended the draft and had the status quo to how Eisenhower had left it in 1960.

That attitude change, the whole War Is Not The Answer was a Boomer idea. Your whole War Can Be The Answer but Vietnam was an Unwinnable Asian Land War was how our Generation learned about it. Different take on it, subtle as it is.

I put the “generations” as approx 1940-1953 then approx 1954 -1966 and approx 1967 – 1979.
Boomers, Forgotten, Gen X in place of what they call the Boomers and Gen X two generations.

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Barry

Understood. I concur on the VN war. I know it as well as I know the Pacific Theater of WW2 which is quite extensive. I knew Cronkite was lying when I was just 15 years old. When I turned 18 (early ’71) there was still a draft, just sans college deferment. They had changed it to drawing your birth date from a hat. Draw early and your drafted, draw around 150 and it’s less likely, 200 and you can party. Except for me. Having had the promise pulled from me that I would wait until I finished college, the draft was an appealing option. With a low number I could tell dad I’m not waiting on the Army and go join the Navy. Didn’t happen.

Ok, so by your breakdown I’m the last boomer or an early forgotten. Matters not one bit to me of course as I find all these generalities to be faulty. My group are more like our fathers than anything else, and that is good enough.

kennycan

How did you react to JFK getting shot compared to your father?

I can tell you how mine compares.

Dad, that’s history and I was in diapers. Didn’t affect me at all.

I bet as a parent of a 10 year old (and your siblings) he had a different reaction than you did.

Barry

We got out of school early 🙂

My parents reaction I’m not certain about. I’m sure they were not pleased that a US president was assassinated.

kennycan

And no matter how you relate well to your Dad, you will never have that experience he had in that key moment.

Reagan getting shot may be close, but it was not the same.

Not following the Cuban Missile Crisis for your Dad only a year earlier.

Get it?

Your Dad may have viewed Vietnam somewhat differently, at least at first, than you did.

Barry

Well, I only know what he thought about VN from ’65 on. His youngest brother (there were 7 boys) came by from Ft. Benning on his way to a new posting. Dad thought it reasonably certain that the posting and his specialty would “keep him the hell out of Vietnam”.

Reagan’s attempted assassination had very little effect on me. Don’t recall it having any great effect on Dad, but I was out of the house then (but I was working for him so in close contact).

What the attempt on Reagan showed me was that it was impossible for a determined killer to be stopped. Any intelligent and capable killer can find a way. Look at what a nut can do with little intelligence and no real ability.

kennycan

Crude oil jumped to 73.62 up 2.76% today alone.

Yields on US Ten Years have fallen from 1.63% to 1.49% as the price of oil keeps rising.

The exact opposite of what you would expect.

The Central Banks must be buying lots of US Treasuries.

Barry

They are going to try and make the Carter years look good…

HazHap

The Fed has started to hint that they might be thinking about discussing the possibility of maybe beginning to slow bond purchases…three years from now. This bold, decisive action freaked out the market last Friday, but after a weekend to think it over the markets apparently realized the Fed is just blowing hot air.

Most regimes are smart enough to know that inflation destroying the middle class tends to lead to revolutions. This regime probably thinks they can ride that tiger without getting eaten, because they think they are smarterer than everyone else in all of history.

The Carter years are going to look like the gold old days. I am positioning my portfolio for serious inflation. There is still a sizable chance of deflation, however, as stupid policies collapse the giant pyramid of debt that is the US (and world) economy. Given the stupidity of the left, both inflation and deflation (one after the other) is also a significant possibility, destroying the average American from both sides.

1
Barry

I am positioning…

I have no clue what to do, other than stockpiling food and ammunition.

HazHap

Food and ammo is likely to be a solid response. The Volcker Fed shifted policy to bring down inflation back in the very early 80s; in the almost 40 years since the US has had an extended period of disinflation and falling bond yields. Almost everyone working on Wall Street today has spent their entire career in this disinflationary environment. Pretty much everyone at the Fed Reserve is the same.

So I expect serious inflation is going to catch the vast majority of them by surprise with how quickly it spikes up, and how difficult it will be to subdue once the inflationary mindset sets in among the public. People holding those near-zero interest rate bonds are going to get absolutely crushed, after many years of bonds being vehicles for capital gains with the interest rate being unimportant. The resulting spike in borrowing costs for corporations and governments as they have to roll over their immense debt loads is going to annihilate many of them. I expect waves of defaults and bankruptcies and massive economic damage. This is the deflation side of the problem.

The idiots running DC will probably decide that inflation is the easier way out, and will print money/have the Fed Reserve buy everything in sight with money created out of thin air. That will wreck the economy from the other side, destroying retirees and pension funds and insurance companies (among many others) and turning most people’s wages into an unfunny joke. This is the inflation side of the problem, and probably comes after the delfation. But the DC idiots may try to skip directly to the money printing. We will have to see.

Last edited 1 month ago by HazHap
Barry

Heh, I think they’e already in the money printing stage. The question I have is if the the deflationary side of tech/engineering/science bringing prices down balances the inflation side. And since that would be a first in history, what does that do long term? I suspect we’ve had that going on for 20 years now.

kennycan

Since the 30’s there has only been a year or so of actual deflation in prices. Perhaps in the 50’s sometimes.

Inflation is more than just a rise in prices and it’s a lot worse already if you look at it logically.

Since the 70’s when Nixon dropped the gold standard we have had fiat money. At first it went into actual prices of a basket of consumer goods, and got measured in the CPI. Since 1989 however, it has mostly flowed into financial bubbles and the CPI has been benign.

But that’s not the true story.

Let’s look at a hypothetical situation. Tech improvements and other productivity enhancers, when the money supply is held flat, would drop prices. Let’s say in this scenario that prices should have fell 2%. Now relax the flat money supply assumption and look at reality instead. If the CPI went up 2% then actual Inflation ran 4%. The 2% prices should have dropped plus the 2% they actually rose.

Now find a way to factor in financial assets and other distortions (like House Prices not included in CPI and only approximated by rents) to the CPI. Let’s say a basket of goods that included assets rose 5%. Then Inflation really ran at 7%.

Given how much tech SHOULD HAVE lowered prices since 1989 or so we have had a massive amount of actual Inflation already.

That excess money never goes away because we never have actual deflation. Instead our savings are eroded. At first that erosion was registering as the reduction of our return ON principal. Real interest rates we earned, meaning the nominal rate less the inflation rate, was falling throughout the 90’s. However in the 80’s it was holding Steady. That is Disinflation. When nominal rates fall at the same rate as real rates because inflation subsides. Since the 90’s Real Rates are falling and it was not Disinflation anymore. It was market manipulation to push real rates down. That benefitted people who borrowed short and invested long term. Debtors. Savers see their purchasing power grow slowly, then not at all.

Since around 2008-9 we are now in Negative Real Rates territory. This sends actual Real Rates of Return into Negative Territory and destroys the Return OF Principal as well. If you bought a 10 year US Treasury bond in 2010 and it matured last year your Purchasing Power was higher in 2010 than the Principal+Interest you got back between 2010-2020.

That calculus has been true for every year since and chances are, with the 10 Year now yielding 1.5% and the CPI rising 5% (remember with productivity gains that means real Inflation is above 5%) you are going to get screwed.

In a real market, that 10 Year Yield should Rise until it gave a proper Real Rate of Return to Investors. That probably should be around 7% or more in reality.

TPTB cannot tolerate Government Borrowing Rates at those rates.

Barry

I semi-understand what you are saying. There are so many factors unmeasured, and many factors not used in the inflation index, that it is difficult to understand what is really happening and the consequence for the long term. For me anyway. I recall around the 2000 time frame when real estate prices doubled over just a few years on Hatteras Island.They haven’t doubled again in this latest round but I’d suspect they are up over 25% in the last year. As with all things like that the fall may be worse than the increase. So where do you park your money? It all looks like an absolute gamble to me. Good thing I don’t have much to worry about.

Fuel Filter

0543 AZ time on 6/22…

Just tried to get into https://westernrifleshooters.us/.

Got a “502 Bad Gateway” error message. He’s been having probs the past 2-3 days. He’s even mentioned it.

Anyone else having this issue?

Barry

Worked just now.

Barry

Let’s see if the troublemaker can get one by the censors –

https://babylonbee.com/news/nation-starts-stocking-up-on-f-15s-after-biden-says-youll-need-them-to-overthrow-the-government

I would like an M1 Abrams tank to go along with my F-15.

HazHap

Where would you keep the M1 Abrams, though? Kind of bulky. Although I guess if you have space for an F-15, finding some for the tank would not be too difficult.

Fuel costs would set you back a fair piece, too, especially these days.

Barry

8 acres of storage, no problem.
I’ll keep the F-15 over at our local aeroport.
Fuel, that may require some go-fund-me work.

SteveF

That’s a silly question. You park the tank wherever you want to. If anyone wants to complain, let them. What are they going to do? You have a tank.

1
Skeptic

How fucking dumb is Pat Buchanan? Like all cucked Republicans, he views the ascension of the black candidate in the New York mayoral race as a call for “law and order.”

Reality:

Blacks and browns voted for the black guy.

Adams might give lip service to law and order but when push comes to shove he’ll do nothing about it, especially considering it’s “his people” doing it.

I have tired of Buchanan in the last few years.

Skeptic
Ironbear

Random observations…

Love is free. Sex, on the other hand, starts at about $200 an hour for an outcall girl, and goes up from there.

Things I learned in my childhood: A sufficient quantity of thermite will set concrete on fire.

SteveF

Don’t know why this didn’t occur to me before, but

I find that alcohol explains many puzzling lapses.

kennycan

Ha!!! You should try crack!
– Hunter Biden

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