Doesn’t seem like all that outlandish a prediction to make from where we’re all sitting today, does it?
It’s mid-April and violence is picking up in United States. As I predicted many times long back. Often I wrote these things right here on Patreon, or said during interviews. Of course I cannot tell the future, but I have spent enough time in and studying wars that my estimations are far more likely to become true than not.
Who else, anywhere, predicted far in advance that April 2021 would likely see significant change in the character of unrest? I don’t know of anyone.
It’s not about sparks. It’s about conditions. I just drove thousands of miles across America sensing conditions. Those who have followed my work in Iraq, Afghanistan, Thailand, Hong Kong, and more, know to listen.
Now is time to repeat something. I am penalized for delivering bad news. When I first wrote in 2006 that the Afghan war was going backwards, support donations fell through the floor. And notice that I actually predicted that would happen in 2006. There is a tendency to support good news and penalize bad news. I want to write that things are looking up internally for United States. But that would be a lie.
Go back and spend an hour looking what the pack was writing about Afghanistan. The pack was writing about how great the Afghan war was going. I was the Lone Ranger. But it was clear. I was there. And I know what to look for. Being there is not enough. You must know what you are feeling for. Same in Iraq. All my dispatches are still online.
Diagnosing cancer is unpleasant. Especially so when I am diagnosing my own country and family.
On an international front, the United States is making a tremendous mistake by not recognizing that Japan is by far our most important international partner. Alleged insults by our leadership to Japan must be clarified, and if any offense was given, a quick and sincere effort to amend any cuts. This matter is of utmost importance.
The wellbeing of the entire world rests heavily on the stability of United States, and our relations with the world.
Then I’d say the entire world is in one hell of a big pickle, and it’s only gonna get worse from here. The current contretemps in the US is a direct and unavoidable consequence of two wholly incompatible belief systems in cheek-by-jowl juxtaposition on the same land mass. This impasse absolutely demands resolution, which can only be achieved via total victory for one side, the utter defeat of the other.
It’s theoretically possible to settle the eternal conflict between liberty and meddlesome, smothering authoritarianism nonviolently—theoretically—although history tells us that ain’t the way to bet. Whatever the conflict’s outcome, though, settled it will be. The two antagonists cannot co-exist in endless deadlock; one must rule, and one must submit. Then, after a too-brief interlude of something like peace, the struggle will begin anew.