Cold Fury

Harshing your mellow since 9/01

Crunching some numbers

ZMan does it, and comes up with reasons for…well, I dunno if optimism is quite the mot juste, at least for me.

The conventional wisdom says the Republicans are headed for a bloodbath in the November midterm elections. Sadly for us, it will not be a literal bloodbath, but it could be a big swing in the representation of the House. The Senate is a different issue, as most of the seats up this time are currently held by Democrats. Many of them are in states that tilt Republican and many are held by blockheads like Debbie Stabenow of Michigan. The House is where the Democrats have a chance to claw back larger capitol offices.

Now, there are some things to keep in mind when thinking about this stuff. One is the mass media is mostly just the propaganda wing of the Democrat party, so they will be endlessly gas lighting us from now until November. Then there is the fact that the constant gerrymandering of House districts has made most of them bulletproof. About 15% of seats are truly competitive now. There’s also the fact that the Democrat freak show tends not to show up in midterms. The trans-lesbian of color voter is surprisingly unreliable.

To get some sense of what could happen this November, I took a look at the district by district results in presidential races over the last three cycles. If a Republican held a seat during the Obama years, it is a safe bet that the seat is solid GOP. If a Democrat held the seat, despite blowouts in 2010 and 2014, the safe bet is the seat is solid Democrat. The point is to eliminate the seats that are locks for either party in any election. The result is 183 seats that the GOP will always win and 194 that Democrat will always win.

Democrats do vastly worse in midterms than Republicans when they hold the White House. This is a familiarity breeds contempt issue. The average net loss for the Republicans is about 12 seats, with a high side of 30 under Bush in 2006. That 2006 election is probably the absolute bottom for the GOP. The Democrats rely on outlandish lies to get their way into majorities, so they suffer greatly in midterms. Their average loss is 31, which reflects a swing back to normal after a presidential election.

The GOP can look at history and figure they probably hold the House just on inertia. Even when the voters are really mad at them, like 2006, the losses are not catastrophic, despite the claims by the media. After the 2008 election, the media was carrying on about the dawn of the Progressive utopia. In reality, the country remained mostly Republican in inclination and that was proven out in the following midterm. The fact is, the GOP is the majority party in America, because it is the party of the white middle-class.

Now, the one sure way to keep the House in the hands of the GOP is to make sure the Republican president is popular. Reagan was suffering in the polls and his party suffered as a result. Bush was popular in 2002 and his party did well in his first midterm. Clinton was very popular in his second midterm and his party did well in that election. If the GOP wants to avoid a disaster this November, they would be wise to help Trump get over 50% in the polls. The obvious way to do that is help deliver on his campaign promises.

Of course, they may hate the idea of helping Trump more than the idea of Speaker Pelosi.

I don’t think there can be any doubt about that at this point; the useless GOPe has made it very clear that that is exactly how they feel. Which is why I said I’m not sure whether a GOP win in November is cause for either optimism or celebration. In view of ongoing skullduggery and treachery in defense of the status quo, I find myself becoming more and more indifferent as to how the Uniparty masks might get swapped around in the Deep State dumbshow this particular time around.

Two terms and out, for every last damned one of the villainous swine. Faint as it is, it remains the only hope of fixing things short of pitchforks, torches, gibbets, and heads on pikes—a development that, gratifying as it would no doubt be in the moment, is guar-on-teed to bring problems all its own.

Update! As I sort of expected him to sooner or later, Schlichter offers a counterpoint to my disgusted indifference.

Let’s start with the basic premise that the GOP establishment is terrible, and as its defining characteristic, its cowardice is only overshadowed by its sheer incompetence.

See, that’s where we differ. I don’t think the “defining characteristic” is either of those things, although they certainly have those too, in spades. I think it’s fraudulence. The GOP isn’t afraid to take on the Left or the Deep State. Nor is it incapable of doing so due to incompetence. I think it’s simply something they have no desire at all to do. The Obamacare repeal bait and switch reveals that well enough.

But even those hacks might be able to win the midterms and keep hope alive for the resurrection of the America we love. It’s all thanks to the aggressive scumminess of our leftist enemies – and yeah, anyone proposing to take my God-given rights to speak, worship, and defend myself, and/or my life, all of which they have recently told me they seek to take, is my enemy.

Take notice, GOPe: If you want to keep your jobs, you need to stop going on vacation and perform.

Mitch McConnell gets a lot of grief (I think he’s usually a savvy legislative knife fighter, though many of people I respect disagree), yet it’s indisputable that he could convert himself from base zero to base hero overnight. All he has to do is step up to the mic and say, “Starting at 8 a.m. Saturday morning we begin the 30 hours of debate on America’s next ambassador to Germany Ric Grenell. I’d advise my friends across the aisle to bring their sleeping bags n’ jammies because we will go one nominee after another, 24/7, until either all the President’s nominees are confirmed or they agree to unanimous consent to proceed on final votes. The horse hockey stops now.”

And then he needs to do it.

Actually, what he REALLY needs to do, should have done already, and WOULD have done five minutes after Trump’s inauguration if he wasn’t exactly the phony snake in the grass I’ve been saying he is for a while now, is end the filibuster. There’s no reason he can’t do it, no reason not to do it; it would be an excellent first step towards dealing a crippling blow to Democrat Socialist obstructionism—IF he was sincere about wanting to do that.

The rest of Kurt’s piece is just pure wishful thinking, unfortunately. They’re all great ideas, mind, and would not only inspire and invigorate real Americans to an undreamed-of degree but would also yield positive practical results for the MAGA project. But not a single one of them has a ghost of a chance of happening as long as the Uniparty establishment has anything to say about it. That sorry reality alone tells you all you need to know about who and what the status-quo GOP really is.

And that in turn reinforces my indifference, I’m afraid. To adapt what the Emperor said to Mozart in Amadeus: You are passionate, Herr Schlichter. But you do not persuade.

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"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." – Claire Wolfe, 101 Things to Do 'Til the Revolution

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