Cold Fury

Harshing your mellow since 9/01

Master troll strikes again

Trump just announced his 2020 re-election bid.

This does two things. First, it causes all the right heads to explode. Second, it provides a diversion from the media’s monomania over Parkland.

Related, this week The New Republic published an article entitled How Trump Wins Reelection. I found the subtitle highly amusing:

Last year, it seemed certain that he would be a one-term president—if he even lasted that long. But he has a plausible path to victory in 2020.

Certain? One would think that, having had their asses handed to them on election night 2016, the leftist punditry class would have been a wee bit more cautious with their political prognostications in 2017.

But, as I’ve long said, that would have made it much harder for them to sleep at night. They hate Trump, but even more, they hate what he represents: an existential threat to their cozy political class dominance of government, media, education, and entertainment. 

 

Some have finally stopped drugging themselves with CNN long enough to realize that Trump is growing stronger by the month. But they’re still missing something key: we’re in a new era.

If you read articles such as the one from TNR, they are saturated with analysis based in the pre-Trump era. They don’t realize that we’re in a new world.

I don’t think it’s impossible for Democrats to win in 2018 or 2020, but I do think it’s impossible with their old formulas and their geriatric leadership. The old punditry pseudo-sports commentary about “ground games” and such was never as insightful as those overpaid babblers thought, but 2016 showed that it was total nonsense. Not that this should have been a surprise, based on research. Key quote:

We show that candidates’ share of the vote is not affected by campaign spending.

Our intuition that carpet bombing the airwaves with obnoxious ads had little or no effect on the vote was correct. It’s possible for particular races that campaign spending and get-out-the-vote efforts can have some effect at the margin. But I think 2016 proved that the traditional analysis from bloviating heads is useless.

Remember that when the cascade of articles comes out this summer about a Blue Wave. Remember it when we start seeing increasingly desperate Trump bashing starting about late 2019. Nobody really knows what will happen, but the predictions most likely to be wrong are from these pretentious windbags.

 

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"America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards." – Claire Wolfe, 101 Things to Do 'Til the Revolution

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