Cold Fury

Harshing your mellow since 9/01

Lies, damned lies, and…

Oh hell, you know the rest of it.

If you listened to President Obama’s speech last Wednesday in Elkhart, Indiana, you’d think America’s economy is just peachy. Then last Friday’s jobs report “landed with a thud.” Employers only added 38,000 jobs last month, while March and April numbers were revised down by a total of 59,000 jobs.

They always are “revised down,” each and every month, and they have been for a long time. This latest one will be too, horrible as it already is. Which accomplishes the seemingly impossible by making it even more…shall we say…depressing.

The Obama administration quickly tried to point out the unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in May, its lowest level since November 2007. And President Obama continued his economic ‘victory’ messaging the next day by declaring, “We’ve cut unemployment by more than half.”

Yet like the job numbers, the White House spin landed with a thud. That’s because the unemployment rate is dead. It’s dead as a political statistic because it can no longer be used in the vacuum of a campaign talking point and it cannot be divorced from other economic indicators as well as voters’ confidence in America’s future. The decline in the unemployment rate was “owed almost entirely to 458,0000 people leaving the labor force.” Other employment indicators gave more discouraging signs: full-time employment decreased on an annual basis for the first time in three years and temporary job growth decreased on an annual basis to its lowest level in six years.

Adding unremarkable GDP growth and depressed incomes to the mix, you now have economists saying “the probability the U.S. would enter a recession over the next 12 months [has] climbed to 37%, the highest for the current expansion cycle.”

We’re not going to be “entering” any new recession, because we never left the old one. Instead, it worsened to a depression, which is what we’re fully and firmly mired in now, try as the government liars might to obscure it. Anybody who’s out there looking for a decent job, or sweating holding onto one they already have, knows it all too well already.

It’s all due almost entirely to strangling over-regulation, confiscatory taxes, outrageous fees and licensing requirements—in short, far too much top-down federal meddling. It has failed every time and everywhere it’s been tried. It’s failing again before our very eyes, and killing off any possibility of real recovery. Nobody sane and realistic would even dream of trying to start a new business in this economic environment. That won’t change until the environment does. That’s really all there is to it.

(Via CDR M)


1 thought on “Lies, damned lies, and…

  1. The definition of a recession starts out bogus. “Two quarters of declining GDP”. This figure is not adjusted for population. It should be measured as GDP/(working-age person). That is, what is production (flip side = income) per person who could be creating that production.

    Higher productivity is produced by a slowly growing absolute number of people (those with jobs) while a growing absolute number of people are losing their jobs. If the working-age but unemployed population were figured in, we would have slowly declining GDP/person and nothing to brag about.

    Consider, China has a large and growing GDP, but a huge number of people, so on average they are very poor. Socialists call this a success, just as the US performance is called a success.

    The US would have to be in great misery to actually score a “recession” under the current statistics that our government has arranged for itself.

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